OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Kai Kamaka III 70% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Andre Fili / KO/TKO)

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

Andre Fili
USAUSA

Andre Fili

“Touchy”

Unranked · 25-14 · hybrid · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 53

Team Alpha Male · USA

VS
Kai Kamaka III
USAUSA

Kai Kamaka III

“The Fighting Hawaiian”

Unranked · 18-8-1 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 61

Xtreme Couture · USA

Andre Fili

30.4%

Kai Kamaka III

69.6%

Model win probability · confidence 65%

Desk

30.4% / 69.6%

Market

57.2% / 42.8%

Moneyline

-143 / +127

Edge

−26.8% III

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on III. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Kamaka III 70 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Kai Kamaka III is the model side at 69.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Kamaka III 71 (B) vs Fili 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kamaka III (5.4 SLpM at 64%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    III

    Kamaka III 71 (B) vs Fili 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kamaka III (5.4 SLpM at 64%).

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    III

    Kamaka III 61 (C+) vs Fili 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Kamaka III (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    III

    Kamaka III 46 (D) vs Fili 38 (D). Kamaka III's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Fili's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    III

    Kamaka III 67 (C+) vs Fili 59 (C). When the shot comes, Kamaka III stuffs it at 79% — Fili is at 76%.

Path · Fili

Fili wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Kamaka III a long look at durability.

Path · III

Volume. Kamaka III wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Fili a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Kamaka III is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fili is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Kamaka III — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Kamaka III 71 (B) vs Fili 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kamaka III (5.4 SLpM at 64%). Fight IQ: Kamaka III 61 (C+) vs Fili 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Kamaka III (C+ vs C). Counter punching: Kamaka III 46 (D) vs Fili 38 (D). Kamaka III's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Fili's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (67%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

FiliTraitIII
53 C
IQ
61 C+
45 D
Ground
39 D
65 C+
Defense
69 B
38 D
Counter
46 D
57 C
Reaction
62 C+
42 D
Agility
71 B
59 C
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
13%
Decision
67%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

14%

R2

9%

R3

10%

Dist

67%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.3 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    0.64 vs 2.69 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    III

  • Damage ratio

    1.20 vs 1.99 landed/absorbed

    III

  • Striking efficiency

    42% vs 64%

    III

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    III

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.88 vs 5.40

    III

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs C+ 61 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    III

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 69.0"

    Fili

  • Ground game (tape)

    45 vs 39

    Fili

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 79% hips on the shot

    III

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 46

    III

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 57%

    Fili

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    III

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Fili

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    III

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 31

    III

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    III

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    III

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 79%

    III

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Fili

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Fili

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Fili

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Fili

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Fili

Tape

FiliMetricIII
3.88SLpM5.40
3.24SApM2.71
42%Str Acc64%
60%Str Def57%
2.32TD Avg1.51
47%TD Acc54%
76%TD Def79%
0.22Sub Avg0.22
0.28KD/150.10
6'2"Reach5'9"
36Age31

Andre Fili

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kai Kamaka III

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.