OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 25, 2026 · Sedriques Dumas 73% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Luis Hernandez / Submission)

Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas

Luis Hernandez
USAUSA

Luis Hernandez

“The Stache”

Unranked · 7-0 · hybrid · -- · 30 · IQ B 71

Freedom Fighters · USA

VS
Sedriques Dumas
USAUSA

Sedriques Dumas

“The Reaper”

Unranked · 10-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C 57

Team Remedy BJJ & MMA · USA

Luis Hernandez

27.1%

Sedriques Dumas

72.9%

Model win probability · confidence 68%

Desk

27.1% / 72.9%

Market

67.3% / 32.7%

Moneyline

-225 / +197

Edge

−40.1% Dumas

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Dumas. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Dumas 73 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Sedriques Dumas is the model side at 72.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Hernandez 69 (B) vs Dumas 53 (C). When the shot comes, Hernandez stuffs it at 85% — Dumas is at 80%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Hernandez

    Hernandez 69 (B) vs Dumas 53 (C). When the shot comes, Hernandez stuffs it at 85% — Dumas is at 80%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Hernandez

    Hernandez 71 (B) vs Dumas 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hernandez (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Dumas

    Dumas 34 (D) vs Hernandez 21 (D). Dumas brings 1.3 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Hernandez's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Dumas

    Dumas 85 (A) vs Hernandez 76 (B). Dumas has been finished by strikes 0 times; Hernandez 0.

Path · Hernandez

Hernandez has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Dumas

Dumas has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Hernandez defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Hernandez attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Dumas is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Hernandez is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -13 toward Hernandez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Hernandez 69 (B) vs Dumas 53 (C). When the shot comes, Hernandez stuffs it at 85% — Dumas is at 80%. Fight IQ: Hernandez 71 (B) vs Dumas 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hernandez (B vs C). Ground game: Dumas 34 (D) vs Hernandez 21 (D). Dumas brings 1.3 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Hernandez's 85% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (60%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Hernandez attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HernandezTraitDumas
71 B
IQ
57 C
21 D
Ground
34 D
57 C
Defense
61 C+
37 D
Counter
46 D
59 C
Reaction
63 C+
39 D
Agility
47 D
69 B
TD react
53 C
76 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Decision
60%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

16%

R2

11%

R3

13%

Dist

60%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.8 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -1.94 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Dumas

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 61%

    Dumas

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs C 57 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hernandez

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.50 landed/absorbed

    Dumas

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 1.97

    Dumas

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 34

    Dumas

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Hernandez

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 79.0"

    Dumas

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Hernandez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Dumas

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 46

    Dumas

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 64%

    Hernandez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Dumas

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Dumas

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Dumas

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Dumas

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Dumas

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Hernandez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 80%

    Hernandez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 31

    Hernandez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Hernandez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hernandez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hernandez

Tape

HernandezMetricDumas
0.00SLpM1.97
4.60SApM3.91
0%Str Acc61%
68%Str Def64%
0.00TD Avg1.30
0%TD Acc32%
85%TD Def80%
0.00Sub Avg0.22
0.10KD/150.10
6'0"Reach6'7"
30Age31

Luis Hernandez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Sedriques Dumas

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.