OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Ernesta Kareckaite 74% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (result / Draw)

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

Ernesta Kareckaite
LithuaniaLithuania

Ernesta Kareckaite

“Heavy-Handed”

Unranked · 6-2-1 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 53

Fighters Land MMA · Lithuania

VS
Melissa Gatto
BrazilBrazil

Melissa Gatto

Unranked · 9-3-2 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 64

KO Squad MMA · Brazil

Ernesta Kareckaite

74.3%

Melissa Gatto

25.7%

Model win probability · confidence 70%

Desk

74.3% / 25.7%

Market

46.8% / 53.2%

Moneyline

+108 / -121

Edge

+27.5% Kareckaite

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Kareckaite. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Kareckaite 74 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Ernesta Kareckaite is the model side at 74.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Gatto (ground 44) into Kareckaite (TD reaction 68). Counter punching is the clearest separator: Gatto 56 (C) vs Kareckaite 22 (D). Gatto's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Kareckaite's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Gatto

    Gatto 56 (C) vs Kareckaite 22 (D). Gatto's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Kareckaite's entries.

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Gatto

    Gatto 44 (D) vs Kareckaite 30 (D). Gatto brings 1.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Kareckaite's 82% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Gatto

    Gatto 64 (C+) vs Kareckaite 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gatto (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Kareckaite

    Kareckaite 73 (B) vs Gatto 64 (C+). Kareckaite absorbs 2.05/min at 53% defense; Gatto is a softer target at 3.39 SApM.

Path · Kareckaite

Kareckaite has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Gatto

Gatto has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Kareckaite defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gatto attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Kareckaite is built as: Volume pressure striker. Gatto is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Gatto — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Gatto 56 (C) vs Kareckaite 22 (D). Gatto's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Kareckaite's entries. Ground game: Gatto 44 (D) vs Kareckaite 30 (D). Gatto brings 1.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Kareckaite's 82% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Gatto 64 (C+) vs Kareckaite 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gatto (C+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (65%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gatto attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KareckaiteTraitGatto
53 C
IQ
64 C+
30 D
Ground
44 D
73 B
Defense
64 C+
22 D
Counter
56 C
63 C+
Reaction
65 C+
67 C+
Agility
60 C+
68 C+
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
17%
Submission
18%
Decision
65%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

15%

R2

9%

R3

11%

Dist

65%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Gatto (ground 44) into Kareckaite (TD reaction 68).

  • Striking differential

    5.23 vs 0.08 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Kareckaite

  • Damage ratio

    3.55 vs 1.02 landed/absorbed

    Kareckaite

  • Output (SLpM)

    7.28 vs 3.47

    Kareckaite

  • Counter punching

    22 vs 56

    Gatto

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gatto

  • Striking efficiency

    47% vs 61%

    Gatto

  • Ground game (tape)

    30 vs 44

    Gatto

  • Striking defense

    53% vs 61%

    Gatto

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Kareckaite

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gatto

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kareckaite

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 69.0"

    Kareckaite

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Gatto (ground 44) into Kareckaite (TD reaction 68).

    Gatto

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Kareckaite

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Kareckaite

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 78% hips on the shot

    Kareckaite

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gatto

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 30

    Kareckaite

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 78%

    Kareckaite

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Kareckaite

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Kareckaite

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Kareckaite

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Kareckaite

Tape

KareckaiteMetricGatto
7.28SLpM3.47
2.05SApM3.39
47%Str Acc61%
53%Str Def61%
0.75TD Avg1.77
60%TD Acc27%
82%TD Def78%
0.00Sub Avg0.39
0.10KD/150.40
5'11"Reach5'9"
28Age30

Ernesta Kareckaite

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Melissa Gatto

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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