OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Loopy Godínez 60% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Loopy Godínez / Decision - Unanimous)

Loopy Godínez vs Ketlen Souza

Loopy Godínez
MexicoMexico

Loopy Godínez

Unranked · 14-6 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 61

Lobo Gym MMA · Mexico

VS
Ketlen Souza
BrazilBrazil

Ketlen Souza

“Esquentadinha”

Unranked · 17-6 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 57

Ribas Family · Brazil

Loopy Godínez

60.1%

Ketlen Souza

39.9%

Model win probability · confidence 54%

Desk

60.1% / 39.9%

Market

66.6% / 33.4%

Moneyline

-218 / +191

Edge

−6.5% Souza

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Souza. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Godínez 60 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Loopy Godínez is the model side at 60.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Godínez (ground 59) into Souza (TD reaction 58). Ground game is the clearest separator: Godínez 59 (C) vs Souza 21 (D). Godínez brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Souza's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Godínez

    Godínez 59 (C) vs Souza 21 (D). Godínez brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Souza's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Souza

    Souza 50 (C) vs Godínez 42 (D). Souza's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Godínez's entries.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Souza

    Souza 65 (C+) vs Godínez 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Souza.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Godínez

    Godínez 61 (C+) vs Souza 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Godínez (C+ vs C).

Path · Godínez

Godínez has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Souza defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Souza

Souza has to stuff the first takedown (58 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Godínez is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Souza is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Godínez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Godínez 59 (C) vs Souza 21 (D). Godínez brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Souza's 83% takedown defense. Counter punching: Souza 50 (C) vs Godínez 42 (D). Souza's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Godínez's entries. Timing & reaction: Souza 65 (C+) vs Godínez 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Souza.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GodínezTraitSouza
61 C+
IQ
57 C
59 C
Ground
21 D
66 C+
Defense
65 C+
42 D
Counter
50 C
60 C
Reaction
65 C+
56 C
Agility
58 C
60 C
TD react
58 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
16%
Submission
29%
Decision
55%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

15%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Godínez (ground 59) into Souza (TD reaction 58).

  • Ground game (tape)

    59 vs 21

    Godínez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Godínez

  • Striking differential

    1.38 vs 0.81 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Godínez

  • Damage ratio

    1.45 vs 1.25 landed/absorbed

    Godínez

  • Striking efficiency

    54% vs 61%

    Souza

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 50

    Souza

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C 57 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Godínez

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Godínez (ground 59) into Souza (TD reaction 58).

    Godínez

  • Reach / length

    61.0" vs 63.0"

    Souza

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.43 vs 4.01

    Godínez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Souza

  • Takedown reaction

    73% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Godínez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Souza

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 73% vs 83%

    Souza

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 60%

    Souza

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Souza

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Godínez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Godínez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 32

    Godínez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Godínez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Godínez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Godínez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Godínez

Tape

GodínezMetricSouza
4.43SLpM4.01
3.05SApM3.20
54%Str Acc61%
59%Str Def60%
2.99TD Avg0.46
43%TD Acc13%
73%TD Def83%
0.82Sub Avg0.23
0.10KD/150.12
5'1"Reach5'3"
33Age32

Loopy Godínez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ketlen Souza

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

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