OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Adrian Yañez 53% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz

Adrian Yañez
USAUSA

Adrian Yañez

Unranked · 18-6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 52

Metro Fight Club · USA

VS
Juan Diaz
PeruPeru

Juan Diaz

“Pegajoso”

Unranked · 16-1-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 69

Entram Gym · Peru

Adrian Yañez

53.3%

Juan Diaz

46.7%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Yañez 53 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Adrian Yañez is the model side at 53.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Diaz (ground 80) into Yañez (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Diaz 80 (B+) vs Yañez 14 (D). Diaz brings 5.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Yañez's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Diaz

    Diaz 80 (B+) vs Yañez 14 (D). Diaz brings 5.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Yañez's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Diaz

    Diaz 69 (B) vs Yañez 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Diaz (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Yañez

    Yañez 73 (B) vs Diaz 56 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Yañez.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Yañez

    Yañez 65 (C+) vs Diaz 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Yañez (6.0 SLpM at 42%).

Path · Yañez

Yañez has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Diaz

Diaz has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Yañez defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Yañez is built as: Volume pressure striker. Diaz is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Fight IQ delta is -18 toward Diaz — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Diaz 80 (B+) vs Yañez 14 (D). Diaz brings 5.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Yañez's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Diaz 69 (B) vs Yañez 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Diaz (B vs C). Timing & reaction: Yañez 73 (B) vs Diaz 56 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Yañez.

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

YañezTraitDiaz
52 C
IQ
69 B
14 D
Ground
80 B+
71 B
Defense
65 C+
36 D
Counter
41 D
73 B
Reaction
56 C
65 C+
Agility
49 D
69 B
TD react
60 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
23%
Decision
38%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

17%

R3

17%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Diaz (ground 80) into Yañez (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    3.45 vs 0.42 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Yañez

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 80

    Diaz

  • Damage ratio

    2.37 vs 1.13 landed/absorbed

    Yañez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Diaz

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Diaz

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.96 vs 3.72

    Yañez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Yañez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Yañez

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 63% hips on the shot

    Yañez

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 61%

    Diaz

  • Striking efficiency

    42% vs 47%

    Diaz

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Diaz

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Yañez

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 41

    Diaz

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Diaz (ground 80) into Yañez (TD reaction 69).

    Diaz

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 63%

    Yañez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 28

    Diaz

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Yañez

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 69.5"

    Yañez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Yañez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Yañez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Yañez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Yañez

Tape

YañezMetricDiaz
5.96SLpM3.72
2.51SApM3.30
42%Str Acc47%
56%Str Def61%
0.00TD Avg5.50
0%TD Acc50%
85%TD Def63%
0.00Sub Avg0.79
0.78KD/150.16
5'10"Reach5'10"
32Age28

Adrian Yañez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Juan Diaz

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.