OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Bia Mesquita 75% · Submission · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita

Macy Chiasson
USAUSA

Macy Chiasson

#10 · 11-6 · hybrid · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 66

Fortis MMA · USA

VS
Bia Mesquita
BrazilBrazil

Bia Mesquita

“The Lady Goat”

Unranked · 8-0 · grappler · Orthodox · 35 · IQ B+ 77

American Top Team · Brazil

Macy Chiasson

25.2%

Bia Mesquita

74.8%

Model win probability · confidence 71%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Mesquita 75 — the tape favors submission hunter

Bia Mesquita is the model side at 74.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Mesquita (ground 87) into Chiasson (TD reaction 61). Ground game is the clearest separator: Mesquita 87 (A) vs Chiasson 44 (D). Mesquita brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Chiasson's 78% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Mesquita

    Mesquita 87 (A) vs Chiasson 44 (D). Mesquita brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Chiasson's 78% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Mesquita

    Mesquita 63 (C+) vs Chiasson 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Mesquita (4.5 SLpM at 69%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Mesquita

    Mesquita 77 (B+) vs Chiasson 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Mesquita (B+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Chiasson

    Chiasson 60 (C) vs Mesquita 53 (C). Chiasson's return is the live one (0.33 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Mesquita's entries.

Path · Chiasson

Chiasson has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Mesquita

Mesquita has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Chiasson defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chiasson attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Mesquita is built as: Submission hunter. Chiasson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +11 toward Mesquita — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Mesquita 87 (A) vs Chiasson 44 (D). Mesquita brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Chiasson's 78% takedown defense. Punching agility: Mesquita 63 (C+) vs Chiasson 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Mesquita (4.5 SLpM at 69%). Fight IQ: Mesquita 77 (B+) vs Chiasson 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Mesquita (B+ vs C+).

The finish path leans the mat (55% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chiasson attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ChiassonTraitMesquita
66 C+
IQ
77 B+
44 D
Ground
87 A
63 C+
Defense
67 C+
60 C
Counter
53 C
62 C+
Reaction
56 C
52 C
Agility
63 C+
61 C+
TD react
64 C+
77 B+
Chin
70 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
55%
Decision
24%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

35%

R2

20%

R3

21%

Dist

24%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Mesquita (ground 87) into Chiasson (TD reaction 61).

  • Ground game (tape)

    44 vs 87

    Mesquita

  • Striking differential

    -0.27 vs 1.50 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Mesquita

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Mesquita

  • Damage ratio

    0.92 vs 1.50 landed/absorbed

    Mesquita

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs B+ 77 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Mesquita

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.21 vs 4.52

    Mesquita

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 69%

    Mesquita

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Mesquita

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 67.5"

    Chiasson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Mesquita

  • Counter punching

    60 vs 53

    Chiasson

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Mesquita (ground 87) into Chiasson (TD reaction 61).

    Mesquita

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 59%

    Chiasson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Chiasson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Chiasson

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 71% hips on the shot

    Mesquita

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Mesquita

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Mesquita

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 71%

    Chiasson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 35

    Chiasson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Chiasson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Chiasson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Chiasson

Tape

ChiassonMetricMesquita
3.21SLpM4.52
3.48SApM3.02
59%Str Acc69%
62%Str Def59%
1.87TD Avg3.57
36%TD Acc75%
78%TD Def71%
0.39Sub Avg3.57
0.33KD/150.10
6'0"Reach5'8"
35Age35

Macy Chiasson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Bia Mesquita

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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