OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Bilal Hasan 91% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule

Bilal Hasan
IndonesiaIndonesia

Bilal Hasan

“The IndoNinja”

Unranked · 9-0 · striker · Switch · 25 · IQ B 70

Charlie's Combat Club · Indonesia

VS
Luis Gurule
USAUSA

Luis Gurule

“Grim”

Unranked · 11-4 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 53

FactoryX Muay Thai · USA

Bilal Hasan

91.0%

Luis Gurule

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Hasan 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Bilal Hasan is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Hasan 86 (A) vs Gurule 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Hasan (28.0 SLpM at 81%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Hasan

    Hasan 86 (A) vs Gurule 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Hasan (28.0 SLpM at 81%).

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Hasan

    Hasan 70 (B) vs Gurule 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hasan (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Gurule

    Gurule 22 (D) vs Hasan 14 (D). Gurule brings 0.6 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Hasan's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Hasan

    Hasan 69 (B) vs Gurule 60 (C+). When the shot comes, Hasan stuffs it at 85% — Gurule is at 82%.

Path · Hasan

Volume. Hasan wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Gurule a clean reset.

Path · Gurule

Gurule has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Hasan defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gurule attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Hasan is built as: Volume pressure striker. Gurule is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Hasan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Hasan 86 (A) vs Gurule 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Hasan (28.0 SLpM at 81%). Fight IQ: Hasan 70 (B) vs Gurule 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hasan (B vs C). Ground game: Gurule 22 (D) vs Hasan 14 (D). Gurule brings 0.6 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Hasan's 85% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gurule attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HasanTraitGurule
70 B
IQ
53 C
14 D
Ground
22 D
66 C+
Defense
69 B
39 D
Counter
32 D
59 C
Reaction
64 C+
86 A
Agility
57 C
69 B
TD react
60 C+
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
18%
Decision
50%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Damage ratio

    20.00 vs 2.01 landed/absorbed

    Hasan

  • Striking differential

    26.60 vs 2.74 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hasan

  • Output (SLpM)

    28.00 vs 5.44

    Hasan

  • Striking efficiency

    81% vs 47%

    Hasan

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hasan

  • Striking defense

    42% vs 57%

    Gurule

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hasan

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 64.0"

    Hasan

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 22

    Gurule

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Hasan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Hasan

  • Counter punching

    39 vs 32

    Hasan

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gurule

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 32

    Hasan

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Gurule

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Hasan

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gurule

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Hasan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gurule

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 82%

    Hasan

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Hasan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hasan

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hasan

Tape

HasanMetricGurule
28.00SLpM5.44
1.40SApM2.70
81%Str Acc47%
42%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg0.64
0%TD Acc16%
85%TD Def82%
0.00Sub Avg0.21
0.28KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'4"
25Age32

Bilal Hasan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Luis Gurule

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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