OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Uroš Medić 60% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Uroš Medić vs Kevin Holland

Uroš Medić
SerbiaSerbia

Uroš Medić

“The Doctor”

Unranked · 14-3 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C 53

Kings MMA · Serbia

VS
Kevin Holland
USAUSA

Kevin Holland

“Trailblazer”

Unranked · 29-15 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 62

Squabble MMA · USA

Uroš Medić

59.6%

Kevin Holland

40.4%

Model win probability · confidence 53%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Medić 60 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Uroš Medić is the model side at 59.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Medić 82 (B+) vs Holland 63 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Medić (5.8 SLpM at 63%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Medić

    Medić 82 (B+) vs Holland 63 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Medić (5.8 SLpM at 63%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Holland

    Holland 39 (D) vs Medić 26 (D). Holland brings 0.8 TD/15 and 10 sub wins into Medić's 84% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Holland

    Holland 62 (C+) vs Medić 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Holland (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Medić

    Medić 74 (B) vs Holland 66 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Medić.

Path · Medić

Medić has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Holland

Holland has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Medić defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Medić is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Holland is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -9 toward Holland — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Medić 82 (B+) vs Holland 63 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Medić (5.8 SLpM at 63%). Ground game: Holland 39 (D) vs Medić 26 (D). Holland brings 0.8 TD/15 and 10 sub wins into Medić's 84% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Holland 62 (C+) vs Medić 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Holland (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (65% KO/TKO vs 16% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MedićTraitHolland
53 C
IQ
62 C+
26 D
Ground
39 D
71 B
Defense
66 C+
59 C
Counter
53 C
74 B
Reaction
66 C+
82 B+
Agility
63 C+
55 C
TD react
60 C
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
65%
Submission
16%
Decision
19%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

42%

R2

21%

R3

18%

Dist

19%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.19 vs 1.12 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Medić

  • Damage ratio

    2.24 vs 1.36 landed/absorbed

    Medić

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 81.0"

    Holland

  • Ground game (tape)

    26 vs 39

    Holland

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.77 vs 4.24

    Medić

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Holland

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Medić

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Holland

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 60%

    Holland

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 53

    Medić

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Holland

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Medić

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Medić

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Medić

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Medić

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Medić

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Medić

  • Striking efficiency

    63% vs 62%

    Medić

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 82%

    Medić

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 33

    Medić

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Medić

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Medić

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Medić

Tape

MedićMetricHolland
5.77SLpM4.24
2.58SApM3.12
63%Str Acc62%
56%Str Def60%
0.34TD Avg0.79
50%TD Acc37%
84%TD Def82%
0.00Sub Avg0.60
1.48KD/150.31
5'11"Reach6'9"
33Age33

Uroš Medić

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kevin Holland

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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