OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Yousri Belgaroui 76% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui

Caio Borralho
BrazilBrazil

Caio Borralho

“The Natural”

Unranked · 18-2 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ B+ 76

Fighting Nerds · Brazil

VS
Yousri Belgaroui
NetherlandsNetherlands

Yousri Belgaroui

Unranked · 10-3 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ B 74

Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Netherlands

Caio Borralho

23.9%

Yousri Belgaroui

76.1%

Model win probability · confidence 80%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Belgaroui 76 — the tape favors power striker

Yousri Belgaroui is the model side at 76.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Borralho 58 (C). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Borralho 58 (C). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Borralho

    Borralho 41 (D) vs Belgaroui 27 (D). Borralho brings 1.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Belgaroui's 84% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 66 (C+) vs Borralho 56 (C). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Borralho's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 72 (B) vs Borralho 64 (C+). Belgaroui absorbs 2.47/min at 56% defense; Borralho is a softer target at 3.39 SApM.

Path · Borralho

Borralho has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Belgaroui defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Belgaroui

Belgaroui has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Borralho attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Belgaroui is built as: Power striker. Borralho is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Borralho — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Borralho 58 (C). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%). Ground game: Borralho 41 (D) vs Belgaroui 27 (D). Borralho brings 1.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Belgaroui's 84% takedown defense. Counter punching: Belgaroui 66 (C+) vs Borralho 56 (C). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Borralho's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 8% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Borralho attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BorralhoTraitBelgaroui
76 B+
IQ
74 B
41 D
Ground
27 D
64 C+
Defense
72 B
56 C
Counter
66 C+
65 C+
Reaction
68 C+
58 C
Agility
82 B+
67 C+
TD react
68 B
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
48%
Submission
8%
Decision
44%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

15%

R3

13%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.08 vs 3.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Belgaroui

  • Damage ratio

    1.02 vs 2.61 landed/absorbed

    Belgaroui

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.47 vs 5.86

    Belgaroui

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Belgaroui

  • Ground game (tape)

    41 vs 27

    Borralho

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Belgaroui

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Belgaroui

  • Counter punching

    56 vs 66

    Belgaroui

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 79.0"

    Belgaroui

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Borralho

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Belgaroui

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 58%

    Borralho

  • Striking efficiency

    63% vs 66%

    Belgaroui

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 76 vs B 74 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Borralho

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 58

    Belgaroui

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Belgaroui

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Belgaroui

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 34

    Borralho

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 86%

    Belgaroui

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Borralho

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Borralho

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Borralho

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Borralho

Tape

BorralhoMetricBelgaroui
3.47SLpM6.10
3.39SApM2.47
63%Str Acc66%
61%Str Def56%
1.25TD Avg0.29
50%TD Acc100%
80%TD Def84%
0.39Sub Avg0.00
0.27KD/150.65
6'3"Reach6'7"
33Age34

Caio Borralho

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Yousri Belgaroui

W

Fighter 5211221

KO/TKO · R3 3:39

Mar 29, 2026
W

Fighter 5123963

KO/TKO · R3 0:55

Oct 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5224461

KO/TKO · R3 2:34

Sep 11, 2024
W

Fighter 5086821

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Feb 18, 2024
W

Fighter 5214600

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

Oct 29, 2023
L

Fighter 5138111

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 30, 2023

Your pick

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