UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Women's Bantamweight · 5 rounds
Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Kayla Harrison 51% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes
USAKayla Harrison
Unranked · 19-1 · striker · Southpaw · 36 · IQ B+ 80
American Top Team · USA
BrazilAmanda Nunes
“The Lioness”
Champion · 23-5 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ B 70
Team Nunes · Brazil
Kayla Harrison
51.5%
Amanda Nunes
48.5%
Model win probability · confidence 52%
Desk
51.5% / 48.5%
Market
63.3% / 36.7%
Moneyline
-192 / +162
Edge
−11.8% Nunes
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Nunes. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Harrison 51 — the tape favors pocket striker
Kayla Harrison is the model side at 51.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Harrison into a striker with 0% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Harrison 65 (C+) vs Nunes 21 (D). When the shot comes, Harrison stuffs it at 74% — Nunes is at 0%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
HarrisonHarrison 65 (C+) vs Nunes 21 (D). When the shot comes, Harrison stuffs it at 74% — Nunes is at 0%.
- 02
Counter punching
NunesNunes 67 (C+) vs Harrison 55 (C). Nunes's return is the live one (0.67 KD/15, 13 KOs) against Harrison's entries.
- 03
Fight IQ
HarrisonHarrison 80 (B+) vs Nunes 70 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Harrison (B+ vs B).
- 04
Timing & reaction
HarrisonHarrison 54 (C) vs Nunes 49 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Harrison.
Path · Harrison
Harrison wins by forcing the fight into fight iq and denying Nunes a long look at durability.
Path · Nunes
Nunes wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Harrison a long look at fight iq.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Harrison is built as: Pocket striker — high-IQ problem solver, southpaw. Nunes is built as: Power striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Harrison — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Harrison 65 (C+) vs Nunes 21 (D). When the shot comes, Harrison stuffs it at 74% — Nunes is at 0%. Counter punching: Nunes 67 (C+) vs Harrison 55 (C). Nunes's return is the live one (0.67 KD/15, 13 KOs) against Harrison's entries. Fight IQ: Harrison 80 (B+) vs Nunes 70 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Harrison (B+ vs B).
The finish path leans the mat (40% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
32%
R2
16%
R3
12%
R4
1%
R5
1%
Dist
38%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.3 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Harrison into a striker with 0% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Takedown reaction
74% vs 0% hips on the shot
HarrisonStriking differential
1.19 vs 2.64 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
NunesDamage ratio
1.38 vs 2.10 landed/absorbed
NunesStriking efficiency
69% vs 54%
HarrisonFight IQ
B+ 80 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
HarrisonTakedown mismatch
TD def 74% vs 35%
HarrisonStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Harrison into a striker with 0% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
HarrisonCounter punching
55 vs 67
NunesGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
HarrisonRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/7 UFC rows
NunesOutput (SLpM)
4.29 vs 5.05
NunesStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 71
NunesReach / length
66.0" vs 69.0"
NunesGround game (tape)
63 vs 59
HarrisonCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
NunesStriking defense
59% vs 57%
HarrisonTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
HarrisonAge-adjusted curve
36 vs 38
HarrisonDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
HarrisonLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
HarrisonChampionship / 5-round
Five-round experience matters
NunesPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
NunesPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Nunes
Tape
Kayla Harrison
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Amanda Nunes
Irene Aldana
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Julianna Peña
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Julianna Peña
Submission · R2 3:26
Fighter 3923484
Submission · R1 2:03
Fighter 3923488
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Germaine de Randamie
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Holly Holm
KO/TKO · R1 4:10
Your pick
Desk briefing
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