OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Dan Hooker 51% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega

Dan Hooker
New ZealandNew Zealand

Dan Hooker

“The Hangman”

#6 · 24-14 · striker · Switch · 36 · IQ C 59

City Kickboxing · New Zealand

VS
Brian Ortega
USAUSA

Brian Ortega

“T-City”

#4 · 16-5 · striker · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 62

Huntington Beach Ultimate Training Center · USA

Dan Hooker

51.4%

Brian Ortega

48.6%

Model win probability · confidence 59%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Hooker 51 — the tape favors pocket striker

Dan Hooker is the model side at 51.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Ortega 42 (D) vs Hooker 22 (D). When the shot comes, Ortega stuffs it at 57% — Hooker is at 50%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Ortega

    Ortega 42 (D) vs Hooker 22 (D). When the shot comes, Ortega stuffs it at 57% — Hooker is at 50%.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Hooker

    Hooker 50 (C) vs Ortega 35 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hooker (4.8 SLpM at 56%).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Ortega

    Ortega 44 (D) vs Hooker 34 (D). Ortega brings 0.9 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Hooker's 50% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Ortega

    Ortega 31 (D) vs Hooker 21 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ortega.

Path · Hooker

Hooker has to stuff the first takedown (22 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 34 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Ortega

Ortega has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Hooker defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Hooker is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Ortega is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -4 toward Ortega — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Ortega 42 (D) vs Hooker 22 (D). When the shot comes, Ortega stuffs it at 57% — Hooker is at 50%. Punching agility: Hooker 50 (C) vs Ortega 35 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hooker (4.8 SLpM at 56%). Ground game: Ortega 44 (D) vs Hooker 34 (D). Ortega brings 0.9 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Hooker's 50% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 25% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HookerTraitOrtega
59 C
IQ
62 C+
34 D
Ground
44 D
37 D
Defense
34 D
43 D
Counter
37 D
21 D
Reaction
31 D
50 C
Agility
35 D
22 D
TD react
42 D
71 B
Chin
68 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
25%
Decision
36%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

17%

R3

16%

Dist

36%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    -0.35 vs -1.51 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hooker

  • Takedown reaction

    50% vs 57% hips on the shot

    Ortega

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 38%

    Hooker

  • Striking defense

    38% vs 46%

    Ortega

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 44

    Ortega

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 69.0"

    Hooker

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hooker

  • Damage ratio

    0.92 vs 0.70 landed/absorbed

    Hooker

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Ortega

  • Fight IQ

    C 59 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Ortega

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ortega

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ortega

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 65 vs 80

    Ortega

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 37

    Hooker

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 49% vs 56%

    Ortega

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.94 vs 3.60

    Hooker

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs D

    Hooker

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Hooker

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 35

    Ortega

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hooker

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Ortega

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Hooker

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hooker

Tape

HookerMetricOrtega
4.82SLpM3.84
4.20SApM5.03
56%Str Acc40%
30%Str Def47%
0.68TD Avg0.93
33%TD Acc25%
50%TD Def57%
0.56Sub Avg0.93
0.00KD/150.32
6'3"Reach5'9"
36Age35

Dan Hooker

L

Fighter 4895362

KO/TKO · R2 4:45

Feb 1, 2026
L

Arman Tsarukyan

Submission · R2 3:34

Nov 22, 2025
W

Fighter 3068125

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Aug 18, 2024
W

Fighter 4339490

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jul 9, 2023
W

Fighter 4070701

KO/TKO · R2 4:06

Nov 13, 2022
L

Fighter 3902098

KO/TKO · R1 2:33

Mar 19, 2022

Brian Ortega

L

Aljamain Sterling

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Aug 23, 2025
L

Fighter 4881999

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 15, 2024
W

Yair Rodriguez

Submission · R3 0:58

Feb 25, 2024
L

Yair Rodriguez

KO/TKO · R1 4:11

Jul 16, 2022
L

Alexander Volkanovski

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Sep 26, 2021
W

Chan Sung Jung

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Oct 17, 2020

Your pick

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