OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Navajo Stirling 59% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Jiří Procházka vs Navajo Stirling

Jiří Procházka
CzechiaCzechia

Jiří Procházka

#4 · 32-6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ B 71

Jetsaam Gym Brno · Czechia

VS
Navajo Stirling
New ZealandNew Zealand

Navajo Stirling

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 66

City Kickboxing · New Zealand

Jiří Procházka

40.9%

Navajo Stirling

59.1%

Model win probability · confidence 52%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Stirling 59 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Navajo Stirling is the model side at 59.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Stirling 85 (A) vs Procházka 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Stirling

    Stirling 85 (A) vs Procházka 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Procházka

    Procházka 31 (D) vs Stirling 22 (D). Procházka brings 0.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Stirling's 82% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Stirling

    Stirling 73 (B) vs Procházka 67 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stirling.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Stirling

    Stirling 68 (C+) vs Procházka 63 (C+). When the shot comes, Stirling stuffs it at 82% — Procházka is at 83%.

Path · Procházka

Procházka has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Stirling defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Stirling

Stirling wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Procházka a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Stirling is built as: Volume pressure striker. Procházka is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is -4 toward Procházka — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Stirling 85 (A) vs Procházka 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%). Ground game: Procházka 31 (D) vs Stirling 22 (D). Procházka brings 0.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Stirling's 82% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Stirling 73 (B) vs Procházka 67 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stirling.

The finish path leans strikes (60% KO/TKO vs 7% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ProcházkaTraitStirling
71 B
IQ
66 C+
31 D
Ground
22 D
70 B
Defense
73 B
50 D
Counter
50 D
67 C+
Reaction
73 B
69 B
Agility
85 A
63 C+
TD react
68 C+
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
60%
Submission
7%
Decision
33%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

35%

R2

17%

R3

13%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

33%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 12.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    2.97 vs 4.13 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Stirling

  • Damage ratio

    2.13 vs 2.76 landed/absorbed

    Stirling

  • Ground game (tape)

    31 vs 22

    Procházka

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Stirling

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.61 vs 6.47

    Stirling

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Procházka

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Stirling

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Stirling

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Stirling

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 55%

    Procházka

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 28

    Stirling

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Stirling

  • Reach / length

    80.0" vs 79.0"

    Procházka

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Stirling

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Procházka

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Stirling

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 82%

    Procházka

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 50

    Procházka

  • Striking efficiency

    58% vs 58%

    Stirling

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Procházka

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Procházka

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Procházka

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Procházka

Tape

ProcházkaMetricStirling
5.61SLpM6.47
2.64SApM2.34
58%Str Acc58%
57%Str Def55%
0.49TD Avg0.82
60%TD Acc25%
83%TD Def82%
0.16Sub Avg0.00
0.36KD/151.02
6'8"Reach6'7"
33Age28

Jiří Procházka

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Navajo Stirling

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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