OctagonEdge

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 7, 2026 · Esteban Ribovics 56% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Esteban Ribovics / KO/TKO)

King Green vs Esteban Ribovics

King Green
USAUSA

King Green

Unranked · 36-17-1 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C+ 62

Pinnacle MMA · USA

VS
Esteban Ribovics
ArgentinaArgentina

Esteban Ribovics

“El Gringo”

Unranked · 16-3 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 63

Kill Cliff FC · Argentina

King Green

43.6%

Esteban Ribovics

56.4%

Model win probability · confidence 49%

Desk

43.6% / 56.4%

Market

37.7% / 62.3%

Moneyline

+158 / -179

Edge

+5.9% Green

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Green. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Ribovics 56 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Esteban Ribovics is the model side at 56.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Timing & reaction is the clearest separator: Ribovics 68 (B) vs Green 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ribovics.

  1. 01

    Timing & reaction

    Ribovics

    Ribovics 68 (B) vs Green 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ribovics.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Green

    Green 36 (D) vs Ribovics 26 (D). Green's return is the live one (0.25 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ribovics's entries.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Green

    Green 40 (D) vs Ribovics 35 (D). Green brings 1.3 TD/15 and 10 sub wins into Ribovics's 84% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Ribovics

    Ribovics 71 (B) vs Green 67 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Ribovics (7.3 SLpM at 45%).

Path · Green

Green wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Ribovics a long look at durability.

Path · Ribovics

Ribovics wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Green a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Ribovics is built as: Volume pressure striker. Green is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Ribovics — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Timing & reaction: Ribovics 68 (B) vs Green 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ribovics. Counter punching: Green 36 (D) vs Ribovics 26 (D). Green's return is the live one (0.25 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ribovics's entries. Ground game: Green 40 (D) vs Ribovics 35 (D). Green brings 1.3 TD/15 and 10 sub wins into Ribovics's 84% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (38% KO/TKO vs 22% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GreenTraitRibovics
62 C+
IQ
63 C+
40 D
Ground
35 D
73 B
Defense
73 B
36 D
Counter
26 D
58 C
Reaction
68 B
67 C+
Agility
71 B
62 C+
TD react
58 C
84 A
Chin
83 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Decision
40%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

16%

R3

17%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Damage ratio

    2.76 vs 3.53 landed/absorbed

    Ribovics

  • Striking differential

    4.12 vs 5.21 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Ribovics

  • Striking efficiency

    56% vs 45%

    Green

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.46 vs 7.27

    Ribovics

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 26

    Green

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 30

    Ribovics

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ribovics

  • Ground game (tape)

    40 vs 35

    Green

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Green

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Ribovics

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 69.0"

    Green

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Green

  • Striking defense

    55% vs 53%

    Green

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Ribovics

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Ribovics

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Green

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ribovics

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 84%

    Ribovics

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Green

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Green

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Green

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Green

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Green

Tape

GreenMetricRibovics
6.46SLpM7.27
2.34SApM2.06
56%Str Acc45%
55%Str Def53%
1.33TD Avg0.35
43%TD Acc67%
80%TD Def84%
0.31Sub Avg0.17
0.25KD/150.44
5'11"Reach5'9"
39Age30

King Green

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Esteban Ribovics

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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