UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Lightweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Sep 7, 2026 · Alexander Hernandez 50% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Alexander Hernandez / KO/TKO)
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez
BrazilRafael Dos Anjos
#7 · 32-17 · hybrid · Southpaw · 41 · IQ C+ 61
Nova Uniao · Brazil
USAAlexander Hernandez
“El Gran Chango”
Unranked · 18-9 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C 54
FactoryX Muay Thai · USA
Rafael Dos Anjos
49.8%
Alexander Hernandez
50.2%
Model win probability · confidence 42%
Desk
49.8% / 50.2%
Market
29.9% / 70.1%
Moneyline
+225 / -258
Edge
+19.8% Anjos
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Anjos. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Hernandez 50 — the tape favors pocket striker
Alexander Hernandez is the model side at 50.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Anjos (ground 48) into Hernandez (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Dos Anjos 48 (D) vs Hernandez 29 (D). Dos Anjos brings 1.9 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Hernandez's 81% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
AnjosDos Anjos 48 (D) vs Hernandez 29 (D). Dos Anjos brings 1.9 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Hernandez's 81% takedown defense.
- 02
Timing & reaction
HernandezHernandez 68 (B) vs Dos Anjos 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Hernandez.
- 03
Counter punching
AnjosDos Anjos 52 (C) vs Hernandez 42 (D). Dos Anjos's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Hernandez's entries.
- 04
Fight IQ
AnjosDos Anjos 61 (C+) vs Hernandez 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Dos Anjos (C+ vs C).
Path · Anjos
Dos Anjos has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Hernandez defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Hernandez
Hernandez has to stuff the first takedown (64 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Hernandez is built as: Pocket striker. Dos Anjos is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Dos Anjos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Dos Anjos 48 (D) vs Hernandez 29 (D). Dos Anjos brings 1.9 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Hernandez's 81% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Hernandez 68 (B) vs Dos Anjos 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Hernandez. Counter punching: Dos Anjos 52 (C) vs Hernandez 42 (D). Dos Anjos's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Hernandez's entries.
The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 21% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
25%
R2
14%
R3
15%
Dist
46%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Anjos (ground 48) into Hernandez (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
0.10 vs 1.11 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
HernandezGround game (tape)
48 vs 29
AnjosDamage ratio
1.03 vs 1.36 landed/absorbed
HernandezStriking efficiency
55% vs 44%
AnjosFight IQ
C+ 61 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
AnjosGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
AnjosCounter punching
52 vs 42
AnjosOutput (SLpM)
3.48 vs 4.23
HernandezTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
HernandezStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Anjos (ground 48) into Hernandez (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
AnjosDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
HernandezReach / length
70.0" vs 72.0"
HernandezAge-adjusted curve
41 vs 33
HernandezPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
HernandezStriking defense
61% vs 60%
AnjosPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
HernandezCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
HernandezTakedown mismatch
TD def 77% vs 81%
HernandezRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
HernandezTakedown reaction
77% vs 81% hips on the shot
AnjosStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
AnjosLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
AnjosChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Anjos
Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Alexander Hernandez
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
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