OctagonEdge

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 7, 2026 · Khaos Williams 86% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Roberto Soldić / Decision - Unanimous)

Roberto Soldić vs Khaos Williams

Roberto Soldić
CroatiaCroatia

Roberto Soldić

“Robocop”

Unranked · 21-4 · hybrid · -- · 31 · IQ C+ 64

UFD Gym · Croatia

VS
Khaos Williams
USAUSA

Khaos Williams

“The Oxfighter”

Unranked · 16-5 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 53

Murcielago MMA · USA

Roberto Soldić

13.7%

Khaos Williams

86.3%

Model win probability · confidence 84%

Desk

13.7% / 86.3%

Market

64.8% / 35.2%

Moneyline

-200 / +176

Edge

−51.1% Williams

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Williams. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Williams 86 — the tape favors pocket striker

Khaos Williams is the model side at 86.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Williams 59 (C) vs Soldić 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Williams (5.0 SLpM at 45%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Williams

    Williams 59 (C) vs Soldić 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Williams (5.0 SLpM at 45%).

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Williams

    Williams 72 (B) vs Soldić 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Williams.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Williams

    Williams 68 (C+) vs Soldić 57 (C). Williams absorbs 2.86/min at 58% defense; Soldić is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Soldić

    Soldić 64 (C+) vs Williams 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Soldić (C+ vs C).

Path · Soldić

Soldić wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Williams a long look at durability.

Path · Williams

Volume. Williams wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Soldić a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Soldić attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Williams is built as: Pocket striker. Soldić is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Soldić — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Williams 59 (C) vs Soldić 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Williams (5.0 SLpM at 45%). Timing & reaction: Williams 72 (B) vs Soldić 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Williams. Striking defense: Williams 68 (C+) vs Soldić 57 (C). Williams absorbs 2.86/min at 58% defense; Soldić is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Soldić attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SoldićTraitWilliams
64 C+
IQ
53 C
13 D
Ground
13 D
57 C
Defense
68 C+
37 D
Counter
41 D
59 C
Reaction
72 B
39 D
Agility
59 C
69 B
TD react
63 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
38%
Submission
11%
Decision
52%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

13%

R3

14%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 2.11 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Williams

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 1.74 landed/absorbed

    Williams

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 45%

    Williams

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 4.97

    Williams

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Soldić

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 58%

    Soldić

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Williams

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Williams

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 77.0"

    Williams

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Williams

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Soldić

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Williams

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 41

    Williams

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Soldić

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 32

    Soldić

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Soldić

  • Ground game (tape)

    13 vs 13

    Williams

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Soldić

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Soldić

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Soldić

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Soldić

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Soldić

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Soldić

Tape

SoldićMetricWilliams
0.00SLpM4.97
4.60SApM2.86
0%Str Acc45%
68%Str Def58%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.67
6'1"Reach6'5"
31Age32

Roberto Soldić

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Khaos Williams

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.