OctagonEdge

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 5, 2026 · Jessie Rosas 55% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Sean King / KO/TKO)

Sean King vs Jessie Rosas

Sean King
USAUSA

Sean King

Unranked · 0-0 · hybrid · -- · 22 · IQ D 43

USA

VS
Jessie Rosas
MexicoMexico

Jessie Rosas

“Tachidito”

Unranked · 8-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 23 · IQ C 54

MMA LAB · Mexico

Sean King

44.9%

Jessie Rosas

55.1%

Model win probability · confidence 48%

Desk

44.9% / 55.1%

Market

67.4% / 32.6%

Moneyline

-226 / +198

Edge

−22.5% Rosas

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Rosas. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Rosas 55 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Jessie Rosas is the model side at 55.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: King 69 (B) vs Rosas 55 (C). When the shot comes, King stuffs it at 85% — Rosas is at 85%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    King

    King 69 (B) vs Rosas 55 (C). When the shot comes, King stuffs it at 85% — Rosas is at 85%.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Rosas

    Rosas 78 (B+) vs King 65 (C+). Rosas has been finished by strikes 0 times; King 0.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Rosas

    Rosas 54 (C) vs King 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rosas (C vs D).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Rosas

    Rosas 21 (D) vs King 12 (D). Rosas brings 0.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into King's 85% takedown defense.

Path · King

King wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Rosas a long look at durability.

Path · Rosas

Rosas has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make King defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Rosas is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. King is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Rosas — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: King 69 (B) vs Rosas 55 (C). When the shot comes, King stuffs it at 85% — Rosas is at 85%. Durability: Rosas 78 (B+) vs King 65 (C+). Rosas has been finished by strikes 0 times; King 0. Fight IQ: Rosas 54 (C) vs King 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rosas (C vs D).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KingTraitRosas
43 D
IQ
54 C
12 D
Ground
21 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
38 D
58 C
Reaction
58 C
38 D
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
55 C
65 C+
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
26%
Decision
53%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Rosas

  • Fight IQ

    D 43 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rosas

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    King

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 21

    Rosas

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Rosas

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 70.0"

    King

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    King

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 38

    Rosas

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    King

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    King

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    King

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    King

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    King

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    King

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    King

  • Age-adjusted curve

    22 vs 23

    King

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    King

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    King

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    King

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    King

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    King

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    King

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    King

Tape

KingMetricRosas
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
22Age23

Sean King

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jessie Rosas

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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