OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 2, 2026 · TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Francisco Prado / KO/TKO)

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

Francisco Prado
ArgentinaArgentina

Francisco Prado

Unranked · 12-5 · striker · Orthodox · 24 · IQ C+ 60

American Top Team · Argentina

VS
Ismael Bonfim
BrazilBrazil

Ismael Bonfim

“Marreta”

Unranked · 20-7 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C 57

Cerrado MMA · Brazil

Francisco Prado

37.8%

Ismael Bonfim

62.2%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

Desk

37.8% / 62.2%

Market

60.7% / 39.3%

Moneyline

-166 / +147

Edge

−22.9% Bonfim

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Bonfim. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Bonfim 62 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Ismael Bonfim is the model side at 62.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Bonfim 65 (C+) vs Prado 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bonfim (5.5 SLpM at 55%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 65 (C+) vs Prado 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bonfim (5.5 SLpM at 55%).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Prado

    Prado 67 (C+) vs Bonfim 54 (C). When the shot comes, Prado stuffs it at 81% — Bonfim is at 81%.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Prado

    Prado 36 (D) vs Bonfim 29 (D). Prado brings 0.9 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Bonfim's 81% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 85 (A) vs Prado 78 (B+). Bonfim has been finished by strikes 0 times; Prado 0.

Path · Prado

Prado wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Bonfim a long look at durability.

Path · Bonfim

Volume. Bonfim wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Prado a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Bonfim is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Prado is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Prado — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Bonfim 65 (C+) vs Prado 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bonfim (5.5 SLpM at 55%). Takedown reaction: Prado 67 (C+) vs Bonfim 54 (C). When the shot comes, Prado stuffs it at 81% — Bonfim is at 81%. Ground game: Prado 36 (D) vs Bonfim 29 (D). Prado brings 0.9 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Bonfim's 81% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PradoTraitBonfim
60 C+
IQ
57 C
36 D
Ground
29 D
65 C+
Defense
70 B
38 D
Counter
38 D
62 C+
Reaction
63 C+
48 D
Agility
65 C+
67 C+
TD react
54 C
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
17%
Decision
54%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    0.92 vs 2.84 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bonfim

  • Damage ratio

    1.29 vs 2.06 landed/absorbed

    Bonfim

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Prado

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.09 vs 5.51

    Bonfim

  • Striking efficiency

    46% vs 55%

    Bonfim

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bonfim

  • Ground game (tape)

    36 vs 29

    Prado

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 60 vs C 57 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Prado

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 71.5"

    Bonfim

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 57%

    Prado

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Bonfim

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Bonfim

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Prado

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 30

    Prado

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bonfim

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bonfim

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 38

    Prado

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bonfim

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 81%

    Prado

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Prado

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Prado

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Prado

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Prado

Tape

PradoMetricBonfim
4.09SLpM5.51
3.17SApM2.67
46%Str Acc55%
60%Str Def57%
0.94TD Avg1.06
19%TD Acc33%
81%TD Def81%
0.47Sub Avg0.00
0.16KD/150.10
5'9"Reach5'12"
24Age30

Francisco Prado

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ismael Bonfim

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.