Octagon Edge

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 2, 2026 · Nathaniel Wood 88% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Pavel Andrusca / Decision - Unanimous)

England

Nathaniel Wood

“The Last Kingsman”

Unranked · 23-6 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 68

Great Britain Top Team · England

Moldova

Pavel Andrusca

Unranked · 8-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 24 · IQ C+ 68

Moldova

Nathaniel Wood

88.4%

Pavel Andrusca

11.6%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

88.4% / 11.6%

Market

71.6% / 28.4%

Moneyline

-279 / +242

Edge

+16.8% Wood

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Wood. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Wood 88 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Nathaniel Wood is the model side at 88.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Wood (ground 41) into Andrusca (TD reaction 69). Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Andrusca 69 (B) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Andrusca stuffs it at 85% — Wood is at 58%.

01
Takedown reaction
Andrusca
Andrusca 69 (B) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Andrusca stuffs it at 85% — Wood is at 58%.
02
Punching agility
Wood
Wood 65 (C+) vs Andrusca 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Wood (5.6 SLpM at 56%).
03
Ground game
Wood
Wood 41 (D) vs Andrusca 14 (D). Wood brings 1.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Andrusca's 85% takedown defense.
04
Timing & reaction
Andrusca
Andrusca 58 (C) vs Wood 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Andrusca.

Path · Wood

Wood has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Andrusca defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Andrusca

Andrusca has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 59 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Andrusca attacking takedown reaction with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Wood is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Andrusca is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Wood — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Andrusca 69 (B) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Andrusca stuffs it at 85% — Wood is at 58%. Punching agility: Wood 65 (C+) vs Andrusca 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Wood (5.6 SLpM at 56%). Ground game: Wood 41 (D) vs Andrusca 14 (D). Wood brings 1.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Andrusca's 85% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Andrusca attacking takedown reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

WoodTraitAndrusca

68 C+

41 D

Ground

14 D

59 C

Defense

57 C

38 D

Counter

37 D

48 D

Reaction

58 C

65 C+

Agility

38 D

35 D

TD react

69 B

91 A+

Chin

85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO

20%

Submission

25%

Decision

55%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

19%

12%

14%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Wood (ground 41) into Andrusca (TD reaction 69).

Striking differential
2.24 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
Wood
Damage ratio
1.75 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed
Wood
Striking efficiency
53% vs 0%
Wood
Output (SLpM)
5.22 vs 0.00
Wood
Takedown reaction
58% vs 85% hips on the shot
Andrusca
Ground game (tape)
41 vs 14
Wood
Striking defense
53% vs 68%
Andrusca
Punching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Wood
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows
Wood
Cardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
Wood
Timing & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
Andrusca
Grappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
Wood
Strength of schedule
Opp. quality 63 vs 50
Wood
Durability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Wood
Age-adjusted curve
33 vs 24
Andrusca
Style interaction
Grappler historical edge: Wood (ground 41) into Andrusca (TD reaction 69).
Wood
Pocket defense (tape)
C vs C
Wood
Counter punching
38 vs 37
Wood
Takedown mismatch
TD def 60% vs 85%
Andrusca
Fight IQ
C+ 68 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Wood
Layoff / rust
Time since last fight
Andrusca
Reach / length
69.0" vs 69.0"
Wood
Championship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Wood

Tape

WoodMetricAndrusca

5.64SLpM0.00

3.16SApM4.60

56%Str Acc0%

52%Str Def68%

1.35TD Avg0.00

49%TD Acc0%

58%TD Def85%

0.47Sub Avg0.00

0.33KD/150.10

5'9"Reach—

33Age24

Nathaniel Wood

Losene Keita

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026

Fighter 5223435