OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Fabia Sintes 73% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Fabia Sintes / Decision - Unanimous)

Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes

Michael Aljarouj
FranceFrance

Michael Aljarouj

“The Soldier”

Unranked · 0-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 0 · IQ D 43

France

VS
Fabia Sintes
SpainSpain

Fabia Sintes

“El Potro Menorquin”

Unranked · 11-3 · hybrid · -- · 32 · IQ C+ 61

Levium Armorum Team · Spain

Michael Aljarouj

27.5%

Fabia Sintes

72.5%

Model win probability · confidence 68%

Desk

27.5% / 72.5%

Market

53.3% / 46.7%

Moneyline

-122 / +108

Edge

−25.9% Sintes

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Sintes. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Sintes 73 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Fabia Sintes is the model side at 72.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Sintes 61 (C+) vs Aljarouj 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sintes (C+ vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Sintes

    Sintes 61 (C+) vs Aljarouj 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sintes (C+ vs D).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Sintes

    Sintes 79 (B+) vs Aljarouj 65 (C+). Sintes has been finished by strikes 0 times; Aljarouj 0.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Aljarouj

    Aljarouj 69 (B) vs Sintes 59 (C). When the shot comes, Aljarouj stuffs it at 85% — Sintes is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Sintes

    Sintes 20 (D) vs Aljarouj 12 (D). Sintes brings 0.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Aljarouj's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Aljarouj

Aljarouj wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Sintes a long look at durability.

Path · Sintes

Sintes wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Aljarouj a long look at their first weapon.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Aljarouj attacking ground game with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Sintes is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Aljarouj is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Sintes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Sintes 61 (C+) vs Aljarouj 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sintes (C+ vs D). Durability: Sintes 79 (B+) vs Aljarouj 65 (C+). Sintes has been finished by strikes 0 times; Aljarouj 0. Takedown reaction: Aljarouj 69 (B) vs Sintes 59 (C). When the shot comes, Aljarouj stuffs it at 85% — Sintes is at 85%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Aljarouj attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AljaroujTraitSintes
43 D
IQ
61 C+
12 D
Ground
20 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
38 D
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
59 C
65 C+
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
29%
Decision
53%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Reach / length

    1.0" vs 67.0"

    Sintes

  • Fight IQ

    D 43 vs C+ 61 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sintes

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Sintes

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Aljarouj

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 20

    Sintes

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sintes

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 32

    Aljarouj

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Aljarouj

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Sintes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Sintes

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Aljarouj

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Aljarouj

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Aljarouj

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Aljarouj

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Aljarouj

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Aljarouj

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Aljarouj

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Aljarouj

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Aljarouj

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Aljarouj

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Aljarouj

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Aljarouj

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Aljarouj

Tape

AljaroujMetricSintes
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
0Age32

Michael Aljarouj

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Fabia Sintes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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