UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Welterweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Daniil Donchenko 71% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Daniil Donchenko / Decision - Unanimous)
Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
UkraineDaniil Donchenko
Unranked · 15-2 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C+ 65
Tiger Muay Thai · Ukraine
USAPunahele Soriano
“Puna”
Unranked · 13-4 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C+ 63
Xtreme Couture · USA
Daniil Donchenko
71.4%
Punahele Soriano
28.6%
Model win probability · confidence 67%
Desk
71.4% / 28.6%
Market
66.8% / 33.2%
Moneyline
-220 / +193
Edge
+4.6% Donchenko
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Donchenko. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Donchenko 71 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Daniil Donchenko is the model side at 71.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Soriano (ground 42) into Donchenko (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Soriano 60 (C+) vs Donchenko 38 (D). Soriano's return is the live one (0.66 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Donchenko's entries.
- 01
Counter punching
SorianoSoriano 60 (C+) vs Donchenko 38 (D). Soriano's return is the live one (0.66 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Donchenko's entries.
- 02
Ground game
SorianoSoriano 42 (D) vs Donchenko 25 (D). Soriano brings 2.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Donchenko's 82% takedown defense.
- 03
Punching agility
DonchenkoDonchenko 81 (B+) vs Soriano 70 (B). Hand speed / output lean Donchenko (7.2 SLpM at 62%).
- 04
Takedown reaction
DonchenkoDonchenko 68 (C+) vs Soriano 59 (C). When the shot comes, Donchenko stuffs it at 82% — Soriano is at 77%.
Path · Donchenko
Donchenko has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Soriano
Soriano has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Donchenko defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Donchenko is built as: Volume pressure striker. Soriano is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Donchenko — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Soriano 60 (C+) vs Donchenko 38 (D). Soriano's return is the live one (0.66 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Donchenko's entries. Ground game: Soriano 42 (D) vs Donchenko 25 (D). Soriano brings 2.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Donchenko's 82% takedown defense. Punching agility: Donchenko 81 (B+) vs Soriano 70 (B). Hand speed / output lean Donchenko (7.2 SLpM at 62%).
The finish path leans strikes (30% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
24%
R2
14%
R3
14%
Dist
47%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Soriano (ground 42) into Donchenko (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
5.05 vs 1.37 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
DonchenkoDamage ratio
3.40 vs 1.45 landed/absorbed
DonchenkoOutput (SLpM)
7.15 vs 4.42
DonchenkoGround game (tape)
25 vs 42
SorianoCounter punching
38 vs 60
SorianoStriking defense
54% vs 59%
SorianoTakedown reaction
82% vs 77% hips on the shot
DonchenkoGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
SorianoPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
DonchenkoPocket defense (tape)
B vs C+
DonchenkoAge-adjusted curve
25 vs 33
DonchenkoRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
DonchenkoStriking efficiency
62% vs 64%
SorianoReach / length
71.0" vs 72.5"
SorianoStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Soriano (ground 42) into Donchenko (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
SorianoFight IQ
C+ 65 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
DonchenkoCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
DonchenkoTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
SorianoTakedown mismatch
TD def 82% vs 77%
DonchenkoDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
SorianoStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
DonchenkoLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
DonchenkoChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Donchenko
Tape
Daniil Donchenko
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Punahele Soriano
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
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