OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Yazmin Jauregui 75% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Yazmin Jauregui / KO/TKO)

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui

Vanessa Demopoulos
USAUSA

Vanessa Demopoulos

“Lil' Monster”

Unranked · 11-8 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 56

Xtreme Couture · USA

VS
Yazmin Jauregui
MexicoMexico

Yazmin Jauregui

Unranked · 11-2 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ D 49

Entram Gym · Mexico

Vanessa Demopoulos

25.4%

Yazmin Jauregui

74.6%

Model win probability · confidence 70%

Desk

25.4% / 74.6%

Market

12.1% / 87.9%

Moneyline

+704 / -950

Edge

+13.3% Demopoulos

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Demopoulos. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Jauregui 75 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Yazmin Jauregui is the model side at 74.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Demopoulos (ground 26) into Jauregui (TD reaction 55). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Jauregui 64 (C+) vs Demopoulos 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jauregui (6.6 SLpM at 42%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Jauregui

    Jauregui 64 (C+) vs Demopoulos 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jauregui (6.6 SLpM at 42%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Demopoulos

    Demopoulos 40 (D) vs Jauregui 23 (D). Demopoulos's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Jauregui's entries.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Demopoulos

    Demopoulos 26 (D) vs Jauregui 12 (D). Demopoulos brings 0.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Jauregui's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Jauregui

    Jauregui 73 (B) vs Demopoulos 64 (C+). Jauregui absorbs 2.28/min at 55% defense; Demopoulos is a softer target at 3.42 SApM.

Path · Demopoulos

Demopoulos has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Jauregui defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Jauregui

Jauregui has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Demopoulos attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Jauregui is built as: Volume pressure striker. Demopoulos is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -8 toward Demopoulos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Jauregui 64 (C+) vs Demopoulos 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jauregui (6.6 SLpM at 42%). Counter punching: Demopoulos 40 (D) vs Jauregui 23 (D). Demopoulos's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Jauregui's entries. Ground game: Demopoulos 26 (D) vs Jauregui 12 (D). Demopoulos brings 0.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Jauregui's 85% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (61%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Demopoulos attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DemopoulosTraitJauregui
56 C
IQ
49 D
26 D
Ground
12 D
64 C+
Defense
73 B
40 D
Counter
23 D
59 C
Reaction
66 C+
41 D
Agility
64 C+
65 C+
TD react
55 C
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
18%
Decision
61%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

16%

R2

11%

R3

12%

Dist

61%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Demopoulos (ground 26) into Jauregui (TD reaction 55).

  • Striking differential

    -0.05 vs 4.36 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jauregui

  • Damage ratio

    0.99 vs 2.91 landed/absorbed

    Jauregui

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.37 vs 6.64

    Jauregui

  • Ground game (tape)

    26 vs 12

    Demopoulos

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jauregui

  • Counter punching

    40 vs 23

    Demopoulos

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs D 49 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Demopoulos

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 55%

    Demopoulos

  • Reach / length

    59.0" vs 64.0"

    Jauregui

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Demopoulos

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Jauregui

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Jauregui

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 27

    Jauregui

  • Striking efficiency

    47% vs 42%

    Demopoulos

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Demopoulos (ground 26) into Jauregui (TD reaction 55).

    Demopoulos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Demopoulos

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jauregui

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jauregui

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jauregui

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 85%

    Jauregui

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Demopoulos

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Demopoulos

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Demopoulos

Tape

DemopoulosMetricJauregui
3.37SLpM6.64
3.42SApM2.28
47%Str Acc42%
61%Str Def55%
0.32TD Avg0.00
10%TD Acc0%
84%TD Def85%
0.43Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.22
4'11"Reach5'4"
37Age27

Vanessa Demopoulos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Yazmin Jauregui

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.