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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Norma Dumont 51% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Ailin Perez / Decision - Unanimous)

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez

Norma Dumont
BrazilBrazil

Norma Dumont

“The Immortal”

Unranked · 13-3 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 65

Gordinho Fight Team · Brazil

VS
Ailin Perez
ArgentinaArgentina

Ailin Perez

“Fiona”

Unranked · 13-2 · wrestler · Switch · 31 · IQ C+ 64

The Goat Shed · Argentina

Norma Dumont

50.9%

Ailin Perez

49.1%

Model win probability · confidence 43%

Desk

50.9% / 49.1%

Market

40.3% / 59.7%

Moneyline

+141 / -159

Edge

+10.5% Dumont

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Dumont. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Dumont 51 — the tape favors pocket striker

Norma Dumont is the model side at 50.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Perez (ground 68) into Dumont (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Perez 68 (C+) vs Dumont 37 (D). Perez brings 4.9 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Dumont's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Perez

    Perez 68 (C+) vs Dumont 37 (D). Perez brings 4.9 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Dumont's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Dumont

    Dumont 67 (C+) vs Perez 49 (D). When the shot comes, Dumont stuffs it at 79% — Perez is at 65%.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Perez

    Perez 55 (C) vs Dumont 49 (D). Perez's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Dumont's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Perez

    Perez 58 (C) vs Dumont 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Perez (2.9 SLpM at 67%).

Path · Dumont

Dumont has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Perez

Perez has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Dumont defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Dumont is built as: Pocket striker. Perez is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Dumont — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Perez 68 (C+) vs Dumont 37 (D). Perez brings 4.9 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Dumont's 79% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Dumont 67 (C+) vs Perez 49 (D). When the shot comes, Dumont stuffs it at 79% — Perez is at 65%. Counter punching: Perez 55 (C) vs Dumont 49 (D). Perez's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Dumont's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DumontTraitPerez
65 C+
IQ
64 C+
37 D
Ground
68 C+
65 C+
Defense
63 C+
49 D
Counter
55 C
60 C
Reaction
57 C
53 C
Agility
58 C
67 C+
TD react
49 D
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
28%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

16%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Perez (ground 68) into Dumont (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    37 vs 68

    Perez

  • Striking differential

    0.60 vs -0.71 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Dumont

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 65% hips on the shot

    Dumont

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Perez

  • Damage ratio

    1.18 vs 0.80 landed/absorbed

    Dumont

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 67%

    Perez

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.85 vs 2.88

    Dumont

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 55

    Perez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 31

    Perez

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 62%

    Perez

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Perez (ground 68) into Dumont (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Perez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Perez

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Dumont

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 66.0"

    Dumont

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 65%

    Dumont

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Dumont

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Dumont

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Perez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Dumont

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Dumont

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Dumont

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Dumont

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Dumont

Tape

DumontMetricPerez
3.85SLpM2.88
3.25SApM3.59
59%Str Acc67%
60%Str Def62%
1.43TD Avg4.90
55%TD Acc49%
79%TD Def65%
0.00Sub Avg0.17
0.10KD/150.10
5'7"Reach5'6"
35Age31

Norma Dumont

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ailin Perez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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