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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Rinya Nakamura 54% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Brady Hiestand / Submission)

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura

Brady Hiestand
USAUSA

Brady Hiestand

“Bam Bam”

Unranked · 9-2 · wrestler · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 71

Sikjitsu · USA

VS
Rinya Nakamura
JapanJapan

Rinya Nakamura

“Hybrid”

Unranked · 10-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 31 · IQ B 71

American Top Team · Japan

Brady Hiestand

46.0%

Rinya Nakamura

54.0%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

Desk

46.0% / 54.0%

Market

24.1% / 75.9%

Moneyline

+303 / -356

Edge

+21.8% Hiestand

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Hiestand. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Nakamura 54 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Rinya Nakamura is the model side at 54.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. wrestler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Hiestand 82 (B+) vs Nakamura 69 (B). Hiestand brings 4.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Nakamura's 75% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Hiestand

    Hiestand 82 (B+) vs Nakamura 69 (B). Hiestand brings 4.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Nakamura's 75% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Nakamura

    Nakamura 68 (B) vs Hiestand 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nakamura.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Nakamura

    Nakamura 59 (C) vs Hiestand 51 (C). Nakamura's return is the live one (0.76 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hiestand's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Nakamura

    Nakamura 62 (C+) vs Hiestand 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nakamura (3.3 SLpM at 58%).

Path · Hiestand

Hiestand has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nakamura defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Nakamura

Nakamura has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Nakamura is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Hiestand is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Fight IQ delta is -0 toward Hiestand — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Hiestand 82 (B+) vs Nakamura 69 (B). Hiestand brings 4.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Nakamura's 75% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Nakamura 68 (B) vs Hiestand 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nakamura. Counter punching: Nakamura 59 (C) vs Hiestand 51 (C). Nakamura's return is the live one (0.76 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hiestand's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (38% KO/TKO vs 19% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HiestandTraitNakamura
71 B
IQ
71 B
82 B+
Ground
69 B
62 C+
Defense
64 C+
51 C
Counter
59 C
59 C
Reaction
68 B
54 C
Agility
62 C+
62 C+
TD react
65 C+
83 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Decision
42%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

wrestler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.96 vs -0.19 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nakamura

  • Ground game (tape)

    82 vs 69

    Hiestand

  • Damage ratio

    0.74 vs 0.95 landed/absorbed

    Nakamura

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 59

    Nakamura

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nakamura

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.70 vs 3.27

    Nakamura

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 68.5"

    Hiestand

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nakamura

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 58%

    Hiestand

  • Takedown reaction

    66% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Nakamura

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nakamura

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hiestand

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 61%

    Hiestand

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 31

    Hiestand

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nakamura

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 66% vs 75%

    Nakamura

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nakamura

  • Style interaction

    wrestler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Hiestand

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hiestand

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nakamura

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Hiestand

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hiestand

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hiestand

Tape

HiestandMetricNakamura
2.70SLpM3.27
3.66SApM3.46
61%Str Acc58%
63%Str Def61%
4.80TD Avg2.58
46%TD Acc82%
66%TD Def75%
1.07Sub Avg1.43
0.25KD/150.76
5'11"Reach5'9"
27Age31

Brady Hiestand

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Rinya Nakamura

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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