OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Rodolfo Bellato 82% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Christian Edwards / KO/TKO)

Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards

Rodolfo Bellato
BrazilBrazil

Rodolfo Bellato

“Trator”

Unranked · 13-3-1 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 70

Team Nogueira · Brazil

VS
Christian Edwards
USAUSA

Christian Edwards

“Pain”

Unranked · 8-5 · striker · -- · 27 · IQ C 54

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

Rodolfo Bellato

81.5%

Christian Edwards

18.5%

Model win probability · confidence 78%

Desk

81.5% / 18.5%

Market

62.1% / 37.9%

Moneyline

-177 / +156

Edge

+19.5% Bellato

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Bellato. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Bellato 82 — the tape favors pocket striker

Rodolfo Bellato is the model side at 81.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Bellato (ground 38) into Edwards (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Bellato 74 (B) vs Edwards 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bellato (5.4 SLpM at 63%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Bellato

    Bellato 74 (B) vs Edwards 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bellato (5.4 SLpM at 63%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Bellato

    Bellato 38 (D) vs Edwards 14 (D). Bellato brings 1.4 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Edwards's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Bellato

    Bellato 70 (B) vs Edwards 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Bellato (B vs C).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Bellato

    Bellato 69 (B) vs Edwards 62 (C+). Bellato absorbs 2.72/min at 57% defense; Edwards is a softer target at 3.76 SApM.

Path · Bellato

Bellato has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Edwards defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Edwards

Edwards has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 69 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Edwards attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Bellato is built as: Pocket striker. Edwards is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Bellato — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Bellato 74 (B) vs Edwards 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bellato (5.4 SLpM at 63%). Ground game: Bellato 38 (D) vs Edwards 14 (D). Bellato brings 1.4 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Edwards's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Bellato 70 (B) vs Edwards 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Bellato (B vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 26% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Edwards attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BellatoTraitEdwards
70 B
IQ
54 C
38 D
Ground
14 D
69 B
Defense
62 C+
50 C
Counter
45 D
67 C+
Reaction
65 C+
74 B
Agility
47 D
67 C+
TD react
63 C+
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
26%
Decision
35%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

18%

R3

20%

Dist

35%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Bellato (ground 38) into Edwards (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.65 vs -1.36 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bellato

  • Damage ratio

    1.97 vs 0.64 landed/absorbed

    Bellato

  • Ground game (tape)

    38 vs 14

    Bellato

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.37 vs 2.40

    Bellato

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Bellato

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bellato

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 63%

    Edwards

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Bellato

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 78.5"

    Edwards

  • Striking efficiency

    63% vs 57%

    Bellato

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Bellato

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bellato

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Bellato (ground 38) into Edwards (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Bellato

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 45

    Bellato

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Bellato

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bellato

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 27

    Edwards

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bellato

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Edwards

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 85%

    Edwards

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Bellato

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Bellato

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Bellato

Tape

BellatoMetricEdwards
5.37SLpM2.40
2.72SApM3.76
63%Str Acc57%
57%Str Def63%
1.38TD Avg0.00
35%TD Acc0%
79%TD Def85%
0.23Sub Avg0.00
0.47KD/150.10
6'3"Reach6'7"
30Age27

Rodolfo Bellato

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Christian Edwards

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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