OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Montel Jackson 57% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Montel Jackson / KO/TKO)

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon

Montel Jackson
USAUSA

Montel Jackson

“Quik”

Unranked · 15-4 · hybrid · Southpaw · 34 · IQ B 69

Pura Vida BJJ · USA

VS
Ricky Simon
USAUSA

Ricky Simon

Unranked · 22-7-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 64

American Top Team Portland · USA

Montel Jackson

57.0%

Ricky Simon

43.0%

Model win probability · confidence 50%

Desk

57.0% / 43.0%

Market

67.0% / 33.0%

Moneyline

-222 / +195

Edge

−10.0% Simon

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Simon. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Jackson 57 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Montel Jackson is the model side at 57.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets wrestler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Jackson 59 (C) vs Simon 41 (D). Jackson's return is the live one (0.59 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Simon's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Jackson

    Jackson 59 (C) vs Simon 41 (D). Jackson's return is the live one (0.59 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Simon's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Jackson

    Jackson 59 (C) vs Simon 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jackson (3.0 SLpM at 62%).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Simon

    Simon 64 (C+) vs Jackson 53 (C). Simon brings 4.5 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Jackson's 74% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Jackson

    Jackson 65 (C+) vs Simon 58 (C). When the shot comes, Jackson stuffs it at 74% — Simon is at 67%.

Path · Jackson

Jackson has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Simon

Simon has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Jackson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Jackson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Simon is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Jackson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Jackson 59 (C) vs Simon 41 (D). Jackson's return is the live one (0.59 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Simon's entries. Punching agility: Jackson 59 (C) vs Simon 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jackson (3.0 SLpM at 62%). Ground game: Simon 64 (C+) vs Jackson 53 (C). Simon brings 4.5 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Jackson's 74% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JacksonTraitSimon
69 B
IQ
64 C+
53 C
Ground
64 C+
63 C+
Defense
63 C+
59 C
Counter
41 D
63 C+
Reaction
58 C
59 C
Agility
43 D
65 C+
TD react
58 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
34%
Submission
13%
Decision
53%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

13%

R3

13%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets wrestler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking efficiency

    62% vs 48%

    Jackson

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 41

    Jackson

  • Ground game (tape)

    53 vs 64

    Simon

  • Reach / length

    75.5" vs 69.0"

    Jackson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jackson

  • Fight IQ

    B 69 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jackson

  • Takedown reaction

    74% vs 67% hips on the shot

    Jackson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Simon

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jackson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 74% vs 67%

    Jackson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Jackson

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets wrestler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Jackson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 33

    Simon

  • Damage ratio

    0.85 vs 0.86 landed/absorbed

    Simon

  • Striking differential

    -0.52 vs -0.51 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Simon

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.02 vs 3.03

    Simon

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 62%

    Jackson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jackson

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jackson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jackson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Jackson

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Jackson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jackson

Tape

JacksonMetricSimon
3.02SLpM3.03
3.54SApM3.54
62%Str Acc48%
62%Str Def62%
2.71TD Avg4.49
64%TD Acc42%
74%TD Def67%
0.29Sub Avg0.26
0.59KD/150.19
6'4"Reach5'9"
34Age33

Montel Jackson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ricky Simon

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.