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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Bantamweight · 4 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu 53% · Submission · Distance · scored hit (Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu / DQ)

Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Mehemmedeli Osmanli
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

“Ineffable”

Unranked · 12-1 · hybrid · -- · 22 · IQ C 52

Azerbaijan

VS
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Unranked · 10-3 · hybrid · -- · 22 · IQ C+ 62

VFS Academy · Kyrgyzstan

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

47.2%

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

52.8%

Model win probability · confidence 45%

Desk

47.2% / 52.8%

Market

72.5% / 27.5%

Moneyline

-294 / +254

Edge

−25.4% Uulu

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Uulu. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Akylbek Uulu 53 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu is the model side at 52.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Akylbek Uulu 69 (B) vs Osmanli 55 (C). When the shot comes, Akylbek Uulu stuffs it at 85% — Osmanli is at 85%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Uulu

    Akylbek Uulu 69 (B) vs Osmanli 55 (C). When the shot comes, Akylbek Uulu stuffs it at 85% — Osmanli is at 85%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Uulu

    Akylbek Uulu 62 (C+) vs Osmanli 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Akylbek Uulu (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Uulu

    Akylbek Uulu 75 (B) vs Osmanli 73 (B). Akylbek Uulu has been finished by strikes 0 times; Osmanli 0.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Osmanli

    Osmanli 21 (D) vs Akylbek Uulu 21 (D). Osmanli brings 0.0 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Akylbek Uulu's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Osmanli

Osmanli wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Akylbek Uulu a long look at durability.

Path · Uulu

Akylbek Uulu wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Osmanli a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Akylbek Uulu is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Osmanli is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Akylbek Uulu — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Akylbek Uulu 69 (B) vs Osmanli 55 (C). When the shot comes, Akylbek Uulu stuffs it at 85% — Osmanli is at 85%. Fight IQ: Akylbek Uulu 62 (C+) vs Osmanli 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Akylbek Uulu (C+ vs C). Durability: Akylbek Uulu 75 (B) vs Osmanli 73 (B). Akylbek Uulu has been finished by strikes 0 times; Osmanli 0.

The finish path leans the mat (46% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

OsmanliTraitUulu
52 C
IQ
62 C+
21 D
Ground
21 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
58 C
38 D
Agility
38 D
55 C
TD react
69 B
73 B
Chin
75 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
46%
Decision
34%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

18%

R3

22%

Dist

34%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.5 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Uulu

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Uulu

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Osmanli

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 68.0"

    Osmanli

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Uulu

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Osmanli

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Osmanli

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Osmanli

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Osmanli

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Osmanli

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Osmanli

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Osmanli

  • Age-adjusted curve

    22 vs 22

    Osmanli

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Osmanli

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Osmanli

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Osmanli

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Osmanli

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Osmanli

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 21

    Osmanli

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Osmanli

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Osmanli

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Osmanli

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Osmanli

Tape

OsmanliMetricUulu
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
22Age22

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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