OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Women's Strawweight · 4 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Valesca Machado 70% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Valesca Machado / KO/TKO)

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado

Melissa Amaya
USAUSA

Melissa Amaya

“La Mamba”

Unranked · 8-0 · hybrid · -- · 31 · IQ B 72

Sikjitsu · USA

VS
Valesca Machado
BrazilBrazil

Valesca Machado

“Tina Black”

Unranked · 15-4 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C 59

Team Alpha Male · Brazil

Melissa Amaya

30.3%

Valesca Machado

69.7%

Model win probability · confidence 65%

Desk

30.3% / 69.7%

Market

36.2% / 63.8%

Moneyline

+168 / -191

Edge

−5.9% Machado

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Machado. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Machado 70 — the tape favors pocket striker

Valesca Machado is the model side at 69.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Amaya 72 (B) vs Machado 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Amaya (B vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Amaya

    Amaya 72 (B) vs Machado 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Amaya (B vs C).

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Machado

    Machado 65 (C+) vs Amaya 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Machado.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Machado

    Machado 62 (C+) vs Amaya 57 (C). Machado absorbs 3.76/min at 63% defense; Amaya is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Amaya

    Amaya 16 (D) vs Machado 13 (D). Amaya brings 0.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Machado's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Amaya

Amaya wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Machado a long look at durability.

Path · Machado

Volume. Machado wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Amaya a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Machado is built as: Pocket striker. Amaya is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -13 toward Amaya — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Amaya 72 (B) vs Machado 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Amaya (B vs C). Timing & reaction: Machado 65 (C+) vs Amaya 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Machado. Striking defense: Machado 62 (C+) vs Amaya 57 (C). Machado absorbs 3.76/min at 63% defense; Amaya is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (72%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AmayaTraitMachado
72 B
IQ
59 C
16 D
Ground
13 D
57 C
Defense
62 C+
37 D
Counter
36 D
59 C
Reaction
65 C+
39 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
15%
Submission
12%
Decision
72%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

11%

R2

8%

R3

9%

Dist

72%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 16.4 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -1.36 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Machado

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 47%

    Machado

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.64 landed/absorbed

    Machado

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 2.40

    Machado

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Amaya

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 63%

    Amaya

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Amaya

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Machado

  • Ground game (tape)

    16 vs 13

    Amaya

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Machado

  • Reach / length

    64.0" vs 63.0"

    Amaya

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Machado

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 36

    Amaya

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Amaya

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Machado

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 30

    Amaya

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Amaya

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Amaya

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Amaya

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Amaya

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Amaya

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Amaya

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Amaya

Tape

AmayaMetricMachado
0.00SLpM2.40
4.60SApM3.76
0%Str Acc47%
68%Str Def63%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'4"Reach5'3"
31Age30

Melissa Amaya

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Valesca Machado

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

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