OctagonEdge

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Yousri Belgaroui 63% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Yousri Belgaroui / KO/TKO)

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

Yousri Belgaroui
NetherlandsNetherlands

Yousri Belgaroui

Unranked · 10-3 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ B 74

Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Netherlands

VS
Djorden Santos
BrazilBrazil

Djorden Santos

“Shakur”

Unranked · 11-3 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 61

American Top Team · Brazil

Yousri Belgaroui

62.8%

Djorden Santos

37.2%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

Desk

62.8% / 37.2%

Market

86.9% / 13.1%

Moneyline

-850 / +644

Edge

−24.1% Santos

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Santos. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Belgaroui 63 — the tape favors power striker

Yousri Belgaroui is the model side at 62.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Belgaroui 66 (C+) vs Santos 24 (D). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Santos's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 66 (C+) vs Santos 24 (D). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Santos's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Santos 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 74 (B) vs Santos 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Belgaroui (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Belgaroui

    Belgaroui 68 (B) vs Santos 58 (C). When the shot comes, Belgaroui stuffs it at 84% — Santos is at 83%.

Path · Belgaroui

Belgaroui wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Santos a long look at durability.

Path · Santos

Santos wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Belgaroui a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Belgaroui is built as: Power striker. Santos is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Belgaroui — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Belgaroui 66 (C+) vs Santos 24 (D). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Santos's entries. Punching agility: Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Santos 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%). Fight IQ: Belgaroui 74 (B) vs Santos 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Belgaroui (B vs C+).

The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 12% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BelgarouiTraitSantos
74 B
IQ
61 C+
27 D
Ground
26 D
72 B
Defense
73 B
66 C+
Counter
24 D
68 C+
Reaction
64 C+
82 B+
Agility
65 C+
68 B
TD react
58 C
84 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Decision
40%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

16%

R3

14%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Counter punching

    66 vs 24

    Belgaroui

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 45%

    Belgaroui

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs C+ 61 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Belgaroui

  • Striking differential

    3.61 vs 4.36 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Santos

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    Belgaroui

  • Damage ratio

    2.61 vs 2.91 landed/absorbed

    Santos

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Belgaroui

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Belgaroui

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.86 vs 6.64

    Santos

  • Reach / length

    79.0" vs 75.5"

    Belgaroui

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Belgaroui

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 55%

    Belgaroui

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 29

    Santos

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 58 vs 50

    Belgaroui

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Belgaroui

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Belgaroui

  • Ground game (tape)

    27 vs 26

    Belgaroui

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Santos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Belgaroui

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 86% vs 83%

    Belgaroui

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Santos

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Belgaroui

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Belgaroui

Tape

BelgarouiMetricSantos
6.10SLpM6.64
2.47SApM2.28
66%Str Acc45%
56%Str Def55%
0.29TD Avg0.51
100%TD Acc29%
84%TD Def83%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.65KD/150.10
6'7"Reach6'4"
34Age29

Yousri Belgaroui

W

Fighter 5211221

KO/TKO · R3 3:39

Mar 29, 2026
W

Fighter 5123963

KO/TKO · R3 0:55

Oct 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5224461

KO/TKO · R3 2:34

Sep 11, 2024
W

Fighter 5086821

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Feb 18, 2024
W

Fighter 5214600

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

Oct 29, 2023
L

Fighter 5138111

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 30, 2023

Djorden Santos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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