Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Featherweight · 5 rounds
Opening locked Aug 28, 2026 · Jose Miguel Delgado 73% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Jean Silva / Submission)
Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel Delgado
BrazilJean Silva
“Lord”
Unranked · 17-3 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 76
Fighting Nerds · Brazil
MexicoJose Miguel Delgado
Unranked · 12-2 · striker · Switch · 28 · IQ B 72
MMA LAB · Mexico
Jean Silva
26.7%
Jose Miguel Delgado
73.3%
Model win probability · confidence 76%
Desk
26.7% / 73.3%
Market
76.9% / 23.1%
Moneyline
-379 / +321
Edge
−50.2% Delgado
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Delgado. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Delgado 73 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Jose Miguel Delgado is the model side at 73.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Delgado 67 (C+) vs Silva 43 (D). When the shot comes, Delgado stuffs it at 79% — Silva is at 57%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
DelgadoDelgado 67 (C+) vs Silva 43 (D). When the shot comes, Delgado stuffs it at 79% — Silva is at 57%.
- 02
Counter punching
SilvaSilva 58 (C) vs Delgado 38 (D). Silva's return is the live one (3.00 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Delgado's entries.
- 03
Timing & reaction
DelgadoDelgado 68 (C+) vs Silva 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Delgado.
- 04
Striking defense
DelgadoDelgado 73 (B) vs Silva 65 (C+). Delgado absorbs 1.98/min at 53% defense; Silva is a softer target at 2.30 SApM.
Path · Silva
Silva has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Delgado defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Delgado
Volume. Delgado wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Silva a clean reset.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Silva attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Delgado is built as: Volume pressure striker. Silva is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -4 toward Silva — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Delgado 67 (C+) vs Silva 43 (D). When the shot comes, Delgado stuffs it at 79% — Silva is at 57%. Counter punching: Silva 58 (C) vs Delgado 38 (D). Silva's return is the live one (3.00 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Delgado's entries. Timing & reaction: Delgado 68 (C+) vs Silva 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Delgado.
The finish path leans strikes (42% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Silva attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
34%
R2
15%
R3
13%
R4
2%
R5
2%
Dist
35%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 13 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
2.40 vs 5.50 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
DelgadoDamage ratio
2.11 vs 3.78 landed/absorbed
DelgadoOutput (SLpM)
4.56 vs 7.48
DelgadoTakedown reaction
57% vs 79% hips on the shot
DelgadoCounter punching
58 vs 38
SilvaGround game (tape)
45 vs 37
SilvaReach / length
69.0" vs 73.0"
DelgadoRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows
SilvaPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs B
DelgadoTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
DelgadoFight IQ
B 76 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
SilvaStriking efficiency
52% vs 57%
DelgadoPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
DelgadoCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
SilvaStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 65 vs 50
SilvaTakedown mismatch
TD def 59% vs 79%
DelgadoStriking defense
51% vs 53%
DelgadoDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
DelgadoStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
SilvaGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
SilvaAge-adjusted curve
29 vs 28
DelgadoLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
DelgadoChampionship / 5-round
Five-round experience matters
Silva
Tape
Jean Silva
Fighter 3902098
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4881999
KO/TKO · R2 4:48
Fighter 3953381
Submission · R2 3:52
Fighter 4686734
KO/TKO · R1 4:15
Fighter 2951202
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R3 1:28
Charles Jourdain
KO/TKO · R2 1:22
Jose Miguel Delgado
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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