OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5 · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha

Quentin Pasley
USAUSA

Quentin Pasley

Unranked · 3-0 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 68

Fighting Arts Academy · USA

VS
Arlind Berisha
AlbaniaAlbania

Arlind Berisha

Unranked · 5-0 · hybrid · -- · 25 · IQ B 72

Sarpsborg Chi Kickboxing & MMA · Albania

Quentin Pasley

48.0%

Arlind Berisha

52.0%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Berisha 52 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Arlind Berisha is the model side at 52.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Berisha 72 (B) vs Pasley 68 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Berisha (B vs C+).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Berisha

    Berisha 72 (B) vs Pasley 68 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Berisha (B vs C+).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Berisha

    Berisha 16 (D) vs Pasley 12 (D). Berisha brings 0.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Pasley's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Berisha

    Berisha 39 (D) vs Pasley 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Berisha (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Berisha

    Berisha 59 (C) vs Pasley 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Berisha.

Path · Pasley

Pasley wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Berisha a long look at durability.

Path · Berisha

Berisha wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Pasley a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Berisha is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Pasley is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Berisha — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Berisha 72 (B) vs Pasley 68 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Berisha (B vs C+). Ground game: Berisha 16 (D) vs Pasley 12 (D). Berisha brings 0.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Pasley's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Berisha 39 (D) vs Pasley 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Berisha (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (60%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PasleyTraitBerisha
68 C+
IQ
72 B
12 D
Ground
16 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
38 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Decision
60%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

16%

R2

11%

R3

13%

Dist

60%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.9 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Berisha

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 16

    Berisha

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 79.0"

    Berisha

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Berisha

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Berisha

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pasley

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Pasley

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Pasley

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Pasley

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Pasley

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pasley

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Pasley

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 25

    Pasley

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Pasley

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Pasley

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pasley

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Pasley

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pasley

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pasley

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Pasley

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Pasley

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Pasley

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pasley

Tape

PasleyMetricBerisha
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
0Age25

Quentin Pasley

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Arlind Berisha

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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