OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 25, 2026 · Nick Klein 87% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result

Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot

Nick Klein
USAUSA

Nick Klein

“Blue Collar”

Unranked · 6-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 65

Pura Vida BJJ · USA

VS
Joe Kropschot
USAUSA

Joe Kropschot

Unranked · 9-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C 56

Team Santos Jiu Jitsu · USA

Nick Klein

87.0%

Joe Kropschot

13.0%

Model win probability · confidence 85%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Klein 87 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Nick Klein is the model side at 87.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Klein (ground 90) into Kropschot (TD reaction 59). Ground game is the clearest separator: Klein 90 (A) vs Kropschot 21 (D). Klein brings 5.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Kropschot's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Klein

    Klein 90 (A) vs Kropschot 21 (D). Klein brings 5.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Kropschot's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Klein

    Klein 53 (C) vs Kropschot 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Klein (2.5 SLpM at 64%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Klein

    Klein 51 (C) vs Kropschot 37 (D). Klein's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Kropschot's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Klein

    Klein 65 (C+) vs Kropschot 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Klein (C+ vs C).

Path · Klein

Klein has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Kropschot defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Kropschot

Kropschot has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Kropschot attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Klein is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Kropschot is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Klein — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Klein 90 (A) vs Kropschot 21 (D). Klein brings 5.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Kropschot's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Klein 53 (C) vs Kropschot 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Klein (2.5 SLpM at 64%). Counter punching: Klein 51 (C) vs Kropschot 37 (D). Klein's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Kropschot's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (44% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Kropschot attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KleinTraitKropschot
65 C+
IQ
56 C
90 A
Ground
21 D
62 C+
Defense
57 C
51 C
Counter
37 D
55 C
Reaction
59 C
53 C
Agility
39 D
59 C
TD react
59 C
78 B+
Chin
73 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
44%
Decision
31%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

19%

R3

22%

Dist

31%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Klein (ground 90) into Kropschot (TD reaction 59).

  • Striking differential

    -1.21 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Klein

  • Ground game (tape)

    90 vs 21

    Klein

  • Striking efficiency

    64% vs 0%

    Klein

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Klein

  • Damage ratio

    0.67 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Klein

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.51 vs 0.00

    Klein

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C 56 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Klein

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 37

    Klein

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 68%

    Kropschot

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Klein

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Klein (ground 90) into Kropschot (TD reaction 59).

    Klein

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Klein

  • Reach / length

    77.0" vs 79.0"

    Kropschot

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 62% vs 85%

    Kropschot

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Klein

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Kropschot

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Kropschot

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Klein

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 31

    Klein

  • Takedown reaction

    62% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Kropschot

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Klein

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Klein

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Klein

Tape

KleinMetricKropschot
2.51SLpM0.00
3.72SApM4.60
64%Str Acc0%
63%Str Def68%
5.79TD Avg0.00
35%TD Acc0%
62%TD Def85%
1.93Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'5"Reach6'7"
30Age31

Nick Klein

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Joe Kropschot

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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