OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 25, 2026 · Opponent TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa

Lucia Szabova
SlovakiaSlovakia

Lucia Szabova

“Queen Bee”

Unranked · 1-0 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 68

Slovakia

VS
Tainara Lisboa
BrazilBrazil

Tainara Lisboa

“Thai Panther”

Unranked · 7-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C 57

Damas 013 · Brazil

Lucia Szabova

27.2%

Tainara Lisboa

72.8%

Model win probability · confidence 68%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Lisboa 73 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Tainara Lisboa is the model side at 72.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Lisboa (ground 42) into Szabova (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Lisboa 42 (D) vs Szabova 12 (D). Lisboa brings 1.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Szabova's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Lisboa

    Lisboa 42 (D) vs Szabova 12 (D). Lisboa brings 1.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Szabova's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Szabova

    Szabova 69 (B) vs Lisboa 53 (C). When the shot comes, Szabova stuffs it at 85% — Lisboa is at 78%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Szabova

    Szabova 68 (C+) vs Lisboa 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Szabova (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Lisboa

    Lisboa 47 (D) vs Szabova 37 (D). Lisboa's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Szabova's entries.

Path · Szabova

Szabova has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Lisboa

Lisboa has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Szabova defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Szabova attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Lisboa is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Szabova is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Szabova — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Lisboa 42 (D) vs Szabova 12 (D). Lisboa brings 1.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Szabova's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Szabova 69 (B) vs Lisboa 53 (C). When the shot comes, Szabova stuffs it at 85% — Lisboa is at 78%. Fight IQ: Szabova 68 (C+) vs Lisboa 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Szabova (C+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Szabova attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SzabovaTraitLisboa
68 C+
IQ
57 C
12 D
Ground
42 D
57 C
Defense
61 C+
37 D
Counter
47 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
38 D
Agility
42 D
69 B
TD react
53 C
85 A
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
17%
Submission
33%
Decision
49%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Lisboa (ground 42) into Szabova (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -1.89 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Lisboa

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 61%

    Lisboa

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 42

    Lisboa

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.52 landed/absorbed

    Lisboa

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 2.01

    Lisboa

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs C 57 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Szabova

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 78% hips on the shot

    Szabova

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Szabova

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Lisboa

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 47

    Lisboa

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 64%

    Szabova

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 35

    Szabova

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Lisboa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Szabova

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Lisboa

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Lisboa (ground 42) into Szabova (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Lisboa

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 67.0"

    Szabova

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Lisboa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 78%

    Szabova

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Lisboa

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Szabova

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Szabova

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Szabova

Tape

SzabovaMetricLisboa
0.00SLpM2.01
4.60SApM3.90
0%Str Acc61%
68%Str Def64%
0.00TD Avg1.67
0%TD Acc32%
85%TD Def78%
0.00Sub Avg0.28
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach5'7"
0Age35

Lucia Szabova

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Tainara Lisboa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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