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UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 25, 2026 · Levi Rodrigues Jr. 86% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Ce Liu vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.

CL
ChinaChina

Ce Liu

Unranked · 3-1 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C+ 61

China

VS
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
BrazilBrazil

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“Baby Monster”

Unranked · 5-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 66

Inside Muay Thai · Brazil

Ce Liu

13.9%

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

86.1%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rodrigues Jr. 86 — the tape favors pocket striker

Levi Rodrigues Jr. is the model side at 86.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Rodrigues Jr. 68 (C+) vs Liu 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rodrigues Jr. (4.5 SLpM at 89%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 68 (C+) vs Liu 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rodrigues Jr. (4.5 SLpM at 89%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 54 (C) vs Liu 37 (D). Rodrigues Jr.'s return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Liu's entries.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 67 (C+) vs Liu 57 (C). Rodrigues Jr. absorbs 3.02/min at 59% defense; Liu is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 85 (A) vs Liu 78 (B+). Rodrigues Jr. has been finished by strikes 0 times; Liu 0.

Path · Liu

Liu wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Rodrigues Jr. a long look at durability.

Path · Jr.

Volume. Rodrigues Jr. wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Liu a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Liu attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Rodrigues Jr. is built as: Pocket striker. Liu is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Rodrigues Jr. — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Rodrigues Jr. 68 (C+) vs Liu 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rodrigues Jr. (4.5 SLpM at 89%). Counter punching: Rodrigues Jr. 54 (C) vs Liu 37 (D). Rodrigues Jr.'s return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Liu's entries. Striking defense: Rodrigues Jr. 67 (C+) vs Liu 57 (C). Rodrigues Jr. absorbs 3.02/min at 59% defense; Liu is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (71%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Liu attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LiuTraitJr.
61 C+
IQ
66 C+
12 D
Ground
12 D
57 C
Defense
67 C+
37 D
Counter
54 C
59 C
Reaction
65 C+
39 D
Agility
68 C+
69 B
TD react
69 B
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
9%
Decision
71%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

8%

R3

10%

Dist

71%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.7 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -3.88 vs 1.48 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jr.

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 89%

    Jr.

  • Damage ratio

    0.13 vs 1.49 landed/absorbed

    Jr.

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 4.50

    Jr.

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jr.

  • Striking defense

    69% vs 59%

    Liu

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 54

    Jr.

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jr.

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Jr.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 4/0 UFC rows

    Liu

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jr.

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jr.

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jr.

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 76.5"

    Liu

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Liu

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 50

    Jr.

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 29

    Liu

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Liu

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 86% vs 85%

    Liu

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Liu

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Liu

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Liu

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Liu

Tape

LiuMetricJr.
0.00SLpM4.50
4.60SApM3.02
0%Str Acc89%
68%Str Def59%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'6"Reach6'5"
29Age29

Ce Liu

W

Fighter 5369422

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

May 23, 2026
L

Fighter 5292007

TKO (Punches) · R2 1:55

Oct 12, 2024
W

Fighter 5369421

KO/TKO · R2 1:07

Jun 28, 2023
W

Fighter 5369420

KO/TKO · R1 1:11

May 17, 2023

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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