OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 9, 2026 · Opponent TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento

Nazim Sadykhov
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Nazim Sadykhov

“Black Wolf”

Unranked · 11-3-1 · striker · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C+ 63

Serra-Longo Fight Team · Azerbaijan

VS
Jefferson Nascimento
BrazilBrazil

Jefferson Nascimento

“Toddynho”

Unranked · 13-1 · hybrid · -- · 27 · IQ B 71

Renovacao Fight Team · Brazil

Nazim Sadykhov

87.6%

Jefferson Nascimento

12.4%

Model win probability · confidence 85%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Sadykhov 88 — the tape favors pocket striker

Nazim Sadykhov is the model side at 87.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Sadykhov (ground 35) into Nascimento (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Sadykhov 62 (C+) vs Nascimento 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sadykhov (4.8 SLpM at 55%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Sadykhov

    Sadykhov 62 (C+) vs Nascimento 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sadykhov (4.8 SLpM at 55%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Sadykhov

    Sadykhov 35 (D) vs Nascimento 16 (D). Sadykhov brings 1.1 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Nascimento's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 69 (B) vs Sadykhov 57 (C). When the shot comes, Nascimento stuffs it at 85% — Sadykhov is at 81%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Sadykhov

    Sadykhov 67 (C+) vs Nascimento 57 (C). Sadykhov absorbs 2.92/min at 58% defense; Nascimento is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Sadykhov

Sadykhov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nascimento defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Nascimento

Nascimento has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nascimento attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sadykhov is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Nascimento is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -8 toward Nascimento — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Sadykhov 62 (C+) vs Nascimento 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sadykhov (4.8 SLpM at 55%). Ground game: Sadykhov 35 (D) vs Nascimento 16 (D). Sadykhov brings 1.1 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Nascimento's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Nascimento 69 (B) vs Sadykhov 57 (C). When the shot comes, Nascimento stuffs it at 85% — Sadykhov is at 81%.

The finish path leans strikes (29% KO/TKO vs 24% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nascimento attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SadykhovTraitNascimento
63 C+
IQ
71 B
35 D
Ground
16 D
67 C+
Defense
57 C
46 D
Counter
37 D
66 C+
Reaction
59 C
62 C+
Agility
39 D
57 C
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
24%
Decision
47%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

47%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Sadykhov (ground 35) into Nascimento (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.87 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Sadykhov

  • Damage ratio

    1.64 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Sadykhov

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 0%

    Sadykhov

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.79 vs 0.00

    Sadykhov

  • Ground game (tape)

    35 vs 16

    Sadykhov

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 68%

    Nascimento

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Sadykhov

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nascimento

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Nascimento

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Sadykhov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Sadykhov

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 37

    Sadykhov

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Sadykhov (ground 35) into Nascimento (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Sadykhov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Sadykhov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nascimento

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sadykhov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 27

    Nascimento

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 70.0"

    Nascimento

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 85%

    Nascimento

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Sadykhov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sadykhov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Sadykhov

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sadykhov

Tape

SadykhovMetricNascimento
4.79SLpM0.00
2.92SApM4.60
55%Str Acc0%
58%Str Def68%
1.10TD Avg0.00
45%TD Acc0%
81%TD Def85%
0.22Sub Avg0.00
0.37KD/150.10
5'9"Reach5'10"
32Age27

Nazim Sadykhov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jefferson Nascimento

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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