OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Heavyweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Sep 9, 2026 · Opponent TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit

Ciryl Gane
FranceFrance

Ciryl Gane

“Bon Gamin”

#4 · 14-2 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ B 73

MMA Factory · France

VS
Josh Hokit
USAUSA

Josh Hokit

Unranked · 10-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B+ 80

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

Ciryl Gane

33.3%

Josh Hokit

66.7%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

Desk

33.3% / 66.7%

Market

68.9% / 31.1%

Moneyline

-252 / +210

Edge

−35.6% Hokit

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Hokit. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Hokit 67 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Josh Hokit is the model side at 66.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Hokit (ground 63) into Gane (TD reaction 67). Ground game is the clearest separator: Hokit 63 (C+) vs Gane 32 (D). Hokit brings 3.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Gane's 100% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Hokit

    Hokit 63 (C+) vs Gane 32 (D). Hokit brings 3.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Gane's 100% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Hokit

    Hokit 95 (A+) vs Gane 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Hokit (9.3 SLpM at 67%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Gane

    Gane 94 (A+) vs Hokit 72 (B). Gane absorbs 1.10/min at 75% defense; Hokit is a softer target at 1.40 SApM.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Hokit

    Hokit 83 (B+) vs Gane 61 (C+). Hokit has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gane 0.

Path · Gane

Gane has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Hokit

Hokit has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Gane defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Hokit is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver. Gane is built as: Power striker. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Hokit — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Hokit 63 (C+) vs Gane 32 (D). Hokit brings 3.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Gane's 100% takedown defense. Punching agility: Hokit 95 (A+) vs Gane 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Hokit (9.3 SLpM at 67%). Striking defense: Gane 94 (A+) vs Hokit 72 (B). Gane absorbs 1.10/min at 75% defense; Hokit is a softer target at 1.40 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (55% KO/TKO vs 29% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GaneTraitHokit
73 B
IQ
80 B+
32 D
Ground
63 C+
94 A+
Defense
72 B
65 C+
Counter
53 C
79 B+
Reaction
67 C+
69 B
Agility
95 A+
67 C+
TD react
64 C+
61 C+
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
55%
Submission
29%
Decision
16%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

44%

R2

21%

R3

17%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

16%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Hokit (ground 63) into Gane (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking differential

    5.38 vs 7.89 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hokit

  • Damage ratio

    5.49 vs 6.64 landed/absorbed

    Hokit

  • Striking defense

    76% vs 49%

    Gane

  • Ground game (tape)

    32 vs 63

    Hokit

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.58 vs 9.29

    Hokit

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    A+ vs B

    Gane

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hokit

  • Reach / length

    81.0" vs 73.5"

    Gane

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Hokit

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hokit

  • Fight IQ

    B 73 vs B+ 80 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hokit

  • Counter punching

    65 vs 53

    Gane

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 79 vs 50

    Gane

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gane

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 28

    Hokit

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 90% vs 70%

    Gane

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Hokit (ground 63) into Gane (TD reaction 67).

    Hokit

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 2/0 UFC rows

    Hokit

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gane

  • Takedown reaction

    100% vs 70% hips on the shot

    Gane

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 67%

    Hokit

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hokit

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Gane

Tape

GaneMetricHokit
5.40SLpM9.29
1.10SApM1.40
63%Str Acc67%
75%Str Def49%
0.66TD Avg3.73
24%TD Acc47%
100%TD Def70%
0.58Sub Avg0.41
0.00KD/151.12
6'9"Reach6'2"
36Age28

Ciryl Gane

W

Serghei Spivac

KO/TKO · R2 3:44

Sep 2, 2023
L

Francis Ngannou

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jan 23, 2022

Josh Hokit

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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