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Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 22, 2026 · Ramiro Jimenez 86% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Ramiro Jimenez vs Rodrigo Vera

Ramiro Jimenez
MexicoMexico

Ramiro Jimenez

“El Cachanilla”

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Southpaw · 27 · IQ B+ 83

The Goat Shed · Mexico

VS
Rodrigo Vera
PeruPeru

Rodrigo Vera

“El Gato Loco”

Unranked · 22-1-1 · striker · -- · 30 · IQ B 75

Chute Boxe - Diego Lima · Peru

Ramiro Jimenez

85.9%

Rodrigo Vera

14.1%

Model win probability · confidence 83%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Jimenez 86 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Ramiro Jimenez is the model side at 85.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Jimenez into a striker with 52% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Jimenez 61 (C+) vs Vera 49 (D). When the shot comes, Jimenez stuffs it at 64% — Vera is at 52%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Jimenez

    Jimenez 61 (C+) vs Vera 49 (D). When the shot comes, Jimenez stuffs it at 64% — Vera is at 52%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Jimenez

    Jimenez 83 (B+) vs Vera 75 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Jimenez (B+ vs B).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Vera

    Vera 72 (B) vs Jimenez 66 (C+). Vera absorbs 1.40/min at 49% defense; Jimenez is a softer target at 1.40 SApM.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Jimenez

    Jimenez 86 (A) vs Vera 83 (B+). Hand speed / output lean Jimenez (14.2 SLpM at 68%).

Path · Jimenez

Jimenez wins by forcing the fight into punching agility and denying Vera a long look at durability.

Path · Vera

Vera wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Jimenez a long look at punching agility.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Vera attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Jimenez is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver, southpaw. Vera is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Jimenez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Jimenez 61 (C+) vs Vera 49 (D). When the shot comes, Jimenez stuffs it at 64% — Vera is at 52%. Fight IQ: Jimenez 83 (B+) vs Vera 75 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Jimenez (B+ vs B). Striking defense: Vera 72 (B) vs Jimenez 66 (C+). Vera absorbs 1.40/min at 49% defense; Jimenez is a softer target at 1.40 SApM.

The finish path leans the mat (29% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Vera attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JimenezTraitVera
83 B+
IQ
75 B
74 B
Ground
73 B
66 C+
Defense
72 B
37 D
Counter
35 D
50 D
Reaction
49 D
86 A
Agility
83 B+
61 C+
TD react
49 D
83 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
29%
Decision
44%

Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Jimenez into a striker with 52% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Damage ratio

    10.16 vs 6.62 landed/absorbed

    Jimenez

  • Striking differential

    12.82 vs 7.87 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jimenez

  • Output (SLpM)

    14.22 vs 9.27

    Jimenez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Vera

  • Striking defense

    42% vs 49%

    Vera

  • Takedown reaction

    64% vs 52% hips on the shot

    Jimenez

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 83 vs B 75 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jimenez

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 68.0"

    Jimenez

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Jimenez into a striker with 52% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Jimenez

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Vera

  • Striking efficiency

    68% vs 66%

    Jimenez

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 35

    Jimenez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jimenez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 64% vs 52%

    Jimenez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 30

    Jimenez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Jimenez

  • Ground game (tape)

    74 vs 73

    Jimenez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jimenez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Vera

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jimenez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jimenez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jimenez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Jimenez

Tape

JimenezMetricVera
14.22SLpM9.27
1.40SApM1.40
68%Str Acc66%
42%Str Def49%
5.20TD Avg8.18
100%TD Acc100%
64%TD Def52%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.25KD/150.12
6'1"Reach—
27Age30

Ramiro Jimenez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Rodrigo Vera

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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