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UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 22, 2026 · Ding Meng 89% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Ding Meng vs Cameron Nelson

Ding Meng
ChinaChina

Ding Meng

“The Assassin”

Unranked · 35-10 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C 54

Black Tiger Fight Club · China

VS
Cameron Nelson
CanadaCanada

Cameron Nelson

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · -- · 28 · IQ B 69

Renzo Gracie PEI · Canada

Ding Meng

89.4%

Cameron Nelson

10.6%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

89.4% / 10.6%

Market

57.8% / 42.2%

Moneyline

-150 / +128

Edge

+31.6% Meng

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Meng. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Meng 89 — the tape favors pocket striker

Ding Meng is the model side at 89.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Nelson 69 (B) vs Meng 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nelson (B vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Nelson

    Nelson 69 (B) vs Meng 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nelson (B vs C).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Nelson

    Nelson 69 (B) vs Meng 56 (C). When the shot comes, Nelson stuffs it at 85% — Meng is at 83%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Meng

    Meng 51 (C) vs Nelson 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Meng (3.8 SLpM at 51%).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Meng

    Meng 65 (C+) vs Nelson 57 (C). Meng absorbs 3.27/min at 60% defense; Nelson is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Meng

Volume. Meng wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Nelson a clean reset.

Path · Nelson

Nelson wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Meng a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nelson attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Meng is built as: Pocket striker. Nelson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -15 toward Nelson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Nelson 69 (B) vs Meng 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nelson (B vs C). Takedown reaction: Nelson 69 (B) vs Meng 56 (C). When the shot comes, Nelson stuffs it at 85% — Meng is at 83%. Punching agility: Meng 51 (C) vs Nelson 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Meng (3.8 SLpM at 51%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (69%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nelson attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MengTraitNelson
54 C
IQ
69 B
26 D
Ground
19 D
65 C+
Defense
57 C
42 D
Counter
37 D
64 C+
Reaction
59 C
51 C
Agility
39 D
56 C
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
10%
Decision
69%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

9%

R3

10%

Dist

69%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.5 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 1.0"

    Meng

  • Striking differential

    0.53 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Meng

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 0%

    Meng

  • Damage ratio

    1.16 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Meng

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.80 vs 0.00

    Meng

  • Fight IQ

    C 54 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nelson

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 68%

    Nelson

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Nelson

  • Ground game (tape)

    26 vs 19

    Meng

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Meng

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Meng

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 37

    Meng

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Meng

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Meng

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Meng

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nelson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Meng

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 28

    Nelson

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Meng

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 85%

    Nelson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Meng

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Meng

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Meng

Tape

MengMetricNelson
3.80SLpM0.00
3.27SApM4.60
51%Str Acc0%
60%Str Def68%
0.50TD Avg0.00
50%TD Acc0%
83%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'1"Reach—
31Age28

Ding Meng

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Cameron Nelson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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