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UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 22, 2026 · Lawrence Lui 90% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago

Lawrence Lui
New ZealandNew Zealand

Lawrence Lui

“Lok Yin”

Unranked · 8-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 65

City Kickboxing · New Zealand

VS
Hector Santiago
BrazilBrazil

Hector Santiago

Unranked · 6-1 · hybrid · -- · 33 · IQ D 50

Team Lucas Mineiro · Brazil

Lawrence Lui

89.6%

Hector Santiago

10.4%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

89.6% / 10.4%

Market

71.2% / 28.8%

Moneyline

-283 / +234

Edge

+18.5% Lui

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Lui. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Lui 90 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Lawrence Lui is the model side at 89.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Lui (ground 64) into Santiago (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Lui 64 (C+) vs Santiago 12 (D). Lui brings 5.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Santiago's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Lui

    Lui 64 (C+) vs Santiago 12 (D). Lui brings 5.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Santiago's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Lui

    Lui 65 (C+) vs Santiago 50 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lui (C+ vs D).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Lui

    Lui 52 (C) vs Santiago 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Lui (3.7 SLpM at 49%).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Lui

    Lui 45 (D) vs Santiago 37 (D). Lui's return is the live one (0.31 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Santiago's entries.

Path · Lui

Lui has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Santiago defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Santiago

Santiago has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Santiago attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Lui is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Santiago is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +16 toward Lui — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Lui 64 (C+) vs Santiago 12 (D). Lui brings 5.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Santiago's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Lui 65 (C+) vs Santiago 50 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lui (C+ vs D). Punching agility: Lui 52 (C) vs Santiago 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Lui (3.7 SLpM at 49%).

The finish path leans the mat (32% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Santiago attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LuiTraitSantiago
65 C+
IQ
50 D
64 C+
Ground
12 D
65 C+
Defense
57 C
45 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
52 C
Agility
38 D
61 C+
TD react
55 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
32%
Decision
42%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Lui (ground 64) into Santiago (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.42 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Lui

  • Ground game (tape)

    64 vs 12

    Lui

  • Striking efficiency

    49% vs 0%

    Lui

  • Damage ratio

    1.13 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Lui

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.72 vs 0.00

    Lui

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs D 50 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lui

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Lui

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 68%

    Santiago

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Lui

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 37

    Lui

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Lui (ground 64) into Santiago (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Lui

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Lui

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 69.0"

    Lui

  • Takedown reaction

    64% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Lui

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 64% vs 85%

    Santiago

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Lui

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 33

    Lui

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Lui

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Santiago

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Lui

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Lui

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Lui

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Lui

Tape

LuiMetricSantiago
3.72SLpM0.00
3.30SApM4.60
49%Str Acc0%
61%Str Def68%
5.30TD Avg0.00
41%TD Acc0%
64%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.31KD/150.10
6'0"Reach5'9"
30Age33

Lawrence Lui

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Hector Santiago

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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