OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 21, 2026 · Sofia Montenegro 85% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

Delphine Benouaich
FranceFrance

Delphine Benouaich

Unranked · 7-2 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 62

France

VS
Sofia Montenegro
ArgentinaArgentina

Sofia Montenegro

“La Bruja”

Unranked · 6-2 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C+ 64

Alfa Team · Argentina

Delphine Benouaich

15.1%

Sofia Montenegro

84.9%

Model win probability · confidence 82%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Montenegro 85 — the tape favors pocket striker

Sofia Montenegro is the model side at 84.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Montenegro 26 (D) vs Benouaich 15 (D). Montenegro brings 1.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Benouaich's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Montenegro

    Montenegro 26 (D) vs Benouaich 15 (D). Montenegro brings 1.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Benouaich's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Montenegro

    Montenegro 49 (D) vs Benouaich 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Montenegro (4.3 SLpM at 44%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Montenegro

    Montenegro 66 (C+) vs Benouaich 57 (C). Montenegro absorbs 3.11/min at 59% defense; Benouaich is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Montenegro

    Montenegro 63 (C+) vs Benouaich 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Montenegro.

Path · Benouaich

Benouaich has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Montenegro

Montenegro has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Benouaich defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Benouaich attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Montenegro is built as: Pocket striker. Benouaich is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Montenegro — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Montenegro 26 (D) vs Benouaich 15 (D). Montenegro brings 1.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Benouaich's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Montenegro 49 (D) vs Benouaich 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Montenegro (4.3 SLpM at 44%). Striking defense: Montenegro 66 (C+) vs Benouaich 57 (C). Montenegro absorbs 3.11/min at 59% defense; Benouaich is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (69%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Benouaich attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BenouaichTraitMontenegro
62 C+
IQ
64 C+
15 D
Ground
26 D
57 C
Defense
66 C+
37 D
Counter
35 D
58 C
Reaction
63 C+
38 D
Agility
49 D
69 B
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Decision
69%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

9%

R3

10%

Dist

69%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.6 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 1.16 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Montenegro

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 1.37 landed/absorbed

    Montenegro

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 44%

    Montenegro

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 4.27

    Montenegro

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 59%

    Benouaich

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 26

    Montenegro

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Montenegro

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Montenegro

  • Reach / length

    65.0" vs 67.5"

    Montenegro

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Montenegro

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Montenegro

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Montenegro

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Montenegro

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 35

    Benouaich

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Benouaich

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Benouaich

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Benouaich

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 81%

    Benouaich

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 27

    Benouaich

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Benouaich

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Benouaich

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Benouaich

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Benouaich

Tape

BenouaichMetricMontenegro
0.00SLpM4.27
4.60SApM3.11
0%Str Acc44%
68%Str Def59%
0.00TD Avg1.00
0%TD Acc25%
85%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach5'8"
0Age27

Delphine Benouaich

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Sofia Montenegro

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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