OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 21, 2026 · Bilal Hasan 91% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas

Bilal Hasan
IndonesiaIndonesia

Bilal Hasan

“The IndoNinja”

Unranked · 9-0 · striker · Switch · 25 · IQ B 70

Charlie's Combat Club · Indonesia

VS
Nilson Rojas
ChileChile

Nilson Rojas

“El Rayo”

Unranked · 9-0 · hybrid · -- · 27 · IQ C+ 68

Pitbull Martial Arts Center · Chile

Bilal Hasan

91.0%

Nilson Rojas

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

91.0% / 9.0%

Market

83.6% / 16.4%

Moneyline

-660 / +488

Edge

+7.4% Hasan

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Hasan. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Hasan 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Bilal Hasan is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Hasan 86 (A) vs Rojas 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hasan (28.0 SLpM at 81%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Hasan

    Hasan 86 (A) vs Rojas 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hasan (28.0 SLpM at 81%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Hasan

    Hasan 66 (C+) vs Rojas 57 (C). Hasan absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Rojas is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Hasan

    Hasan 70 (B) vs Rojas 68 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hasan (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Hasan

    Hasan 14 (D) vs Rojas 12 (D). Hasan brings 0.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Rojas's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Hasan

Volume. Hasan wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Rojas a clean reset.

Path · Rojas

Rojas wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Hasan a long look at punching agility.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rojas attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Hasan is built as: Volume pressure striker. Rojas is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Hasan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Hasan 86 (A) vs Rojas 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hasan (28.0 SLpM at 81%). Striking defense: Hasan 66 (C+) vs Rojas 57 (C). Hasan absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Rojas is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Fight IQ: Hasan 70 (B) vs Rojas 68 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hasan (B vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (60%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rojas attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HasanTraitRojas
70 B
IQ
68 C+
14 D
Ground
12 D
66 C+
Defense
57 C
39 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
59 C
86 A
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
16%
Decision
60%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

11%

R3

13%

Dist

60%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.7 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    26.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hasan

  • Damage ratio

    20.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Hasan

  • Output (SLpM)

    28.00 vs 0.00

    Hasan

  • Striking efficiency

    81% vs 0%

    Hasan

  • Striking defense

    42% vs 68%

    Rojas

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hasan

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 66.0"

    Hasan

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Hasan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Hasan

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hasan

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 12

    Hasan

  • Counter punching

    39 vs 37

    Hasan

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Hasan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Rojas

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hasan

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Hasan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 27

    Hasan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Hasan

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Hasan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hasan

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hasan

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Hasan

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Hasan

Tape

HasanMetricRojas
28.00SLpM0.00
1.40SApM4.60
81%Str Acc0%
42%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.28KD/150.10
5'10"Reach—
25Age27

Bilal Hasan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Nilson Rojas

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.