OctagonEdge

UFC 332 · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Damian Pinas 76% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev

Damian Pinas
ArubaAruba

Damian Pinas

“The Baba Yaga”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 24 · IQ C+ 67

Nova Uniao · Aruba

VS
Andrey Pulyaev
RussiaRussia

Andrey Pulyaev

Unranked · 10-5 · striker · Southpaw · 28 · IQ C+ 65

Storm Shlemenko Fight Team · Russia

Damian Pinas

76.4%

Andrey Pulyaev

23.6%

Model win probability · confidence 72%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Pinas 76 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Damian Pinas is the model side at 76.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Pinas 81 (B+) vs Pulyaev 59 (C). Hand speed / output lean Pinas (6.3 SLpM at 66%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Pinas

    Pinas 81 (B+) vs Pulyaev 59 (C). Hand speed / output lean Pinas (6.3 SLpM at 66%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Pinas

    Pinas 73 (B) vs Pulyaev 64 (C+). Pinas absorbs 2.38/min at 55% defense; Pulyaev is a softer target at 3.34 SApM.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Pinas

    Pinas 69 (B) vs Pulyaev 62 (C+). When the shot comes, Pinas stuffs it at 85% — Pulyaev is at 84%.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Pulyaev

    Pulyaev 18 (D) vs Pinas 14 (D). Pulyaev brings 0.3 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Pinas's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Pinas

Volume. Pinas wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Pulyaev a clean reset.

Path · Pulyaev

Pulyaev wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Pinas a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pulyaev attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Pinas is built as: Volume pressure striker. Pulyaev is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Pinas — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Pinas 81 (B+) vs Pulyaev 59 (C). Hand speed / output lean Pinas (6.3 SLpM at 66%). Striking defense: Pinas 73 (B) vs Pulyaev 64 (C+). Pinas absorbs 2.38/min at 55% defense; Pulyaev is a softer target at 3.34 SApM. Takedown reaction: Pinas 69 (B) vs Pulyaev 62 (C+). When the shot comes, Pinas stuffs it at 85% — Pulyaev is at 84%.

The finish path leans strikes (40% KO/TKO vs 13% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pulyaev attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PinasTraitPulyaev
67 C+
IQ
65 C+
14 D
Ground
18 D
73 B
Defense
64 C+
49 D
Counter
53 C
68 C+
Reaction
66 C+
81 B+
Agility
59 C
69 B
TD react
62 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
40%
Submission
13%
Decision
47%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

47%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.95 vs 0.26 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pinas

  • Damage ratio

    2.66 vs 1.08 landed/absorbed

    Pinas

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.33 vs 3.60

    Pinas

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pinas

  • Striking defense

    55% vs 61%

    Pulyaev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Pinas

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Pinas

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Pinas

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 61%

    Pinas

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 18

    Pulyaev

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pinas

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 53

    Pulyaev

  • Reach / length

    79.5" vs 78.0"

    Pinas

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pinas

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Pinas

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 28

    Pinas

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pulyaev

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Pinas

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 84%

    Pinas

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Pinas

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pinas

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pinas

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pinas

Tape

PinasMetricPulyaev
6.33SLpM3.60
2.38SApM3.34
66%Str Acc61%
55%Str Def61%
0.00TD Avg0.27
0%TD Acc17%
85%TD Def84%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.51KD/150.19
6'8"Reach6'6"
24Age28

Damian Pinas

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Andrey Pulyaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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