OctagonEdge

UFC 332 · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Imanol Rodriguez 63% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria

Imanol Rodriguez
MexicoMexico

Imanol Rodriguez

“Himan”

Unranked · 7-1 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C+ 65

AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) · Mexico

VS
Alden Coria
USAUSA

Alden Coria

“Cobra”

Unranked · 13-3 · grappler · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 63

4oz Fight Club · USA

Imanol Rodriguez

62.6%

Alden Coria

37.4%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rodriguez 63 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Imanol Rodriguez is the model side at 62.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Coria (ground 67) into Rodriguez (TD reaction 67). Ground game is the clearest separator: Coria 67 (C+) vs Rodriguez 30 (D). Coria brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Rodriguez's 80% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Coria

    Coria 67 (C+) vs Rodriguez 30 (D). Coria brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Rodriguez's 80% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 78 (B+) vs Coria 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rodriguez (5.7 SLpM at 59%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 67 (C+) vs Coria 56 (C). When the shot comes, Rodriguez stuffs it at 80% — Coria is at 76%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 51 (C) vs Coria 42 (D). Rodriguez's return is the live one (0.80 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Coria's entries.

Path · Rodriguez

Rodriguez has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Coria

Coria has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Rodriguez defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Rodriguez is built as: Volume pressure striker. Coria is built as: Submission hunter. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Rodriguez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Coria 67 (C+) vs Rodriguez 30 (D). Coria brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Rodriguez's 80% takedown defense. Punching agility: Rodriguez 78 (B+) vs Coria 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rodriguez (5.7 SLpM at 59%). Takedown reaction: Rodriguez 67 (C+) vs Coria 56 (C). When the shot comes, Rodriguez stuffs it at 80% — Coria is at 76%.

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RodriguezTraitCoria
65 C+
IQ
63 C+
30 D
Ground
67 C+
70 B
Defense
65 C+
51 C
Counter
42 D
71 B
Reaction
62 C+
78 B+
Agility
53 C
67 C+
TD react
56 C
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
28%
Decision
33%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

18%

R3

18%

Dist

33%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Coria (ground 67) into Rodriguez (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking differential

    3.11 vs 0.87 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rodriguez

  • Ground game (tape)

    30 vs 67

    Coria

  • Damage ratio

    2.20 vs 1.27 landed/absorbed

    Rodriguez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Coria

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.71 vs 4.05

    Rodriguez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Rodriguez

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 76% hips on the shot

    Rodriguez

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 50%

    Rodriguez

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 42

    Rodriguez

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 60%

    Coria

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rodriguez

  • Reach / length

    64.5" vs 67.0"

    Coria

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Rodriguez

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Coria (ground 67) into Rodriguez (TD reaction 67).

    Coria

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rodriguez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Rodriguez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rodriguez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Rodriguez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 76%

    Rodriguez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 28

    Rodriguez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Rodriguez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Rodriguez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Rodriguez

Tape

RodriguezMetricCoria
5.71SLpM4.05
2.60SApM3.18
59%Str Acc50%
57%Str Def60%
1.30TD Avg2.21
33%TD Acc55%
80%TD Def76%
0.00Sub Avg1.47
0.80KD/150.16
5'5"Reach5'7"
26Age28

Imanol Rodriguez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alden Coria

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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