OctagonEdge

UFC 332 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ismail Naurdiev 65% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev

Marvin Vettori
ItalyItaly

Marvin Vettori

“The Italian Dream”

#6 · 19-10-1 · striker · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C 56

American Top Team · Italy

VS
Ismail Naurdiev
MoroccoMorocco

Ismail Naurdiev

“The Austrian Wonderboy”

Unranked · 25-8 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 67

Top Team Salzburg · Morocco

Marvin Vettori

34.8%

Ismail Naurdiev

65.2%

Model win probability · confidence 62%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Naurdiev 65 — the tape favors pocket striker

Ismail Naurdiev is the model side at 65.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Naurdiev 64 (C+) vs Vettori 44 (D). Naurdiev absorbs 3.32/min at 61% defense; Vettori is a softer target at 5.45 SApM.

  1. 01

    Striking defense

    Naurdiev

    Naurdiev 64 (C+) vs Vettori 44 (D). Naurdiev absorbs 3.32/min at 61% defense; Vettori is a softer target at 5.45 SApM.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Naurdiev

    Naurdiev 52 (C) vs Vettori 35 (D). Naurdiev's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vettori's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Vettori

    Vettori 75 (B) vs Naurdiev 59 (C). When the shot comes, Vettori stuffs it at 88% — Naurdiev is at 79%.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Naurdiev

    Naurdiev 58 (C) vs Vettori 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Naurdiev (3.7 SLpM at 62%).

Path · Vettori

Vettori wins by forcing the fight into takedown reaction and denying Naurdiev a long look at durability.

Path · Naurdiev

Naurdiev wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Vettori a long look at takedown reaction.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Naurdiev is built as: Pocket striker. Vettori is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Naurdiev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Naurdiev 64 (C+) vs Vettori 44 (D). Naurdiev absorbs 3.32/min at 61% defense; Vettori is a softer target at 5.45 SApM. Counter punching: Naurdiev 52 (C) vs Vettori 35 (D). Naurdiev's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vettori's entries. Takedown reaction: Vettori 75 (B) vs Naurdiev 59 (C). When the shot comes, Vettori stuffs it at 88% — Naurdiev is at 79%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

VettoriTraitNaurdiev
56 C
IQ
67 C+
43 D
Ground
38 D
44 D
Defense
64 C+
35 D
Counter
52 C
49 D
Reaction
63 C+
43 D
Agility
58 C
75 B
TD react
59 C
71 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
33%
Submission
16%
Decision
52%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

16%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 2/0 UFC rows

    Naurdiev

  • Striking differential

    -0.60 vs 0.34 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Naurdiev

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Naurdiev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs C+

    Naurdiev

  • Takedown reaction

    88% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Vettori

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 62%

    Naurdiev

  • Counter punching

    35 vs 52

    Naurdiev

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.06 vs 3.66

    Vettori

  • Striking defense

    53% vs 61%

    Naurdiev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Naurdiev

  • Damage ratio

    0.89 vs 1.10 landed/absorbed

    Naurdiev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Naurdiev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Naurdiev

  • Ground game (tape)

    43 vs 38

    Vettori

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 65 vs 50

    Vettori

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Vettori

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Vettori

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 30

    Naurdiev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 79%

    Vettori

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Vettori

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Naurdiev

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 74.0"

    Vettori

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Vettori

Tape

VettoriMetricNaurdiev
4.74SLpM3.66
5.45SApM3.32
51%Str Acc62%
55%Str Def61%
1.41TD Avg1.48
44%TD Acc41%
88%TD Def79%
0.39Sub Avg0.16
0.00KD/150.10
6'2"Reach6'2"
32Age30

Marvin Vettori

L

Brunno Ferreira

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Dec 6, 2025
L

Roman Dolidze

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Mar 15, 2025

Ismail Naurdiev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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