OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 91% · Submission · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Nikita Krylov
RussiaRussia

Nikita Krylov

“The Miner”

Unranked · 31-12 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 61

Raty Team · Russia

VS
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
TürkiyeTürkiye

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

“Hunter”

Unranked · 10-0 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B+ 82

MMA & Combat Nurnberg · Türkiye

Nikita Krylov

9.0%

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Yakhyaev 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Yakhyaev (ground 97) into Krylov (TD reaction 52). Ground game is the clearest separator: Yakhyaev 97 (A+) vs Krylov 62 (C+). Yakhyaev brings 11.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Krylov's 76% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Yakhyaev

    Yakhyaev 97 (A+) vs Krylov 62 (C+). Yakhyaev brings 11.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Krylov's 76% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Yakhyaev

    Yakhyaev 90 (A) vs Krylov 66 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Yakhyaev (8.6 SLpM at 70%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Yakhyaev

    Yakhyaev 82 (B+) vs Krylov 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yakhyaev (B+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Krylov

    Krylov 52 (C) vs Yakhyaev 43 (D). When the shot comes, Krylov stuffs it at 76% — Yakhyaev is at 41%.

Path · Krylov

Krylov has to stuff the first takedown (52 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Yakhyaev

Yakhyaev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Krylov defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Krylov attacking takedown reaction with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Yakhyaev is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver, suspect hips against the shot. Krylov is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +21 toward Yakhyaev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Yakhyaev 97 (A+) vs Krylov 62 (C+). Yakhyaev brings 11.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Krylov's 76% takedown defense. Punching agility: Yakhyaev 90 (A) vs Krylov 66 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Yakhyaev (8.6 SLpM at 70%). Fight IQ: Yakhyaev 82 (B+) vs Krylov 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yakhyaev (B+ vs C+).

The finish path leans the mat (52% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Krylov attacking takedown reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KrylovTraitYakhyaev
61 C+
IQ
82 B+
62 C+
Ground
97 A+
66 C+
Defense
73 B
55 C
Counter
46 D
61 C+
Reaction
54 C
66 C+
Agility
90 A
52 C
TD react
43 D
77 B+
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
52%
Decision
11%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

40%

R2

24%

R3

25%

Dist

11%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Yakhyaev (ground 97) into Krylov (TD reaction 52).

  • Damage ratio

    1.43 vs 5.47 landed/absorbed

    Yakhyaev

  • Striking differential

    1.31 vs 7.06 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Yakhyaev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Yakhyaev

  • Ground game (tape)

    62 vs 97

    Yakhyaev

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.38 vs 8.64

    Yakhyaev

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs B+ 82 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Yakhyaev

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 51%

    Krylov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Yakhyaev

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 41% hips on the shot

    Krylov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Yakhyaev

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 46

    Krylov

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Yakhyaev (ground 97) into Krylov (TD reaction 52).

    Yakhyaev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Yakhyaev

  • Striking efficiency

    65% vs 70%

    Yakhyaev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 41%

    Krylov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 25

    Yakhyaev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Krylov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Yakhyaev

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 78.0"

    Yakhyaev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Krylov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Krylov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Krylov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Krylov

Tape

KrylovMetricYakhyaev
4.38SLpM8.64
3.07SApM1.58
65%Str Acc70%
59%Str Def51%
2.19TD Avg11.11
38%TD Acc75%
76%TD Def41%
1.14Sub Avg7.41
0.33KD/150.56
6'6"Reach6'6"
34Age25

Nikita Krylov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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