OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Cam Rowston 65% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston

Abus Magomedov
GermanyGermany

Abus Magomedov

Unranked · 29-7-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 63

UFD Gym · Germany

VS
Cam Rowston
AustraliaAustralia

Cam Rowston

“Battle Giraffe”

Unranked · 15-3 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 71

City Kickboxing · Australia

Abus Magomedov

34.6%

Cam Rowston

65.4%

Model win probability · confidence 60%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rowston 65 — the tape favors pocket striker

Cam Rowston is the model side at 65.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Magomedov (ground 58) into Rowston (TD reaction 67). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Rowston 65 (C+) vs Magomedov 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rowston (4.6 SLpM at 57%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Rowston

    Rowston 65 (C+) vs Magomedov 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rowston (4.6 SLpM at 57%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 58 (C) vs Rowston 42 (D). Magomedov brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Rowston's 80% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Rowston

    Rowston 67 (C+) vs Magomedov 53 (C). When the shot comes, Rowston stuffs it at 80% — Magomedov is at 75%.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Rowston

    Rowston 67 (C+) vs Magomedov 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Rowston.

Path · Magomedov

Magomedov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Rowston defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Rowston

Rowston has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Rowston is built as: Pocket striker. Magomedov is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +8 toward Rowston — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Rowston 65 (C+) vs Magomedov 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rowston (4.6 SLpM at 57%). Ground game: Magomedov 58 (C) vs Rowston 42 (D). Magomedov brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Rowston's 80% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Rowston 67 (C+) vs Magomedov 53 (C). When the shot comes, Rowston stuffs it at 80% — Magomedov is at 75%.

The finish path leans strikes (38% KO/TKO vs 37% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MagomedovTraitRowston
63 C+
IQ
71 B
58 C
Ground
42 D
63 C+
Defense
67 C+
43 D
Counter
49 D
58 C
Reaction
67 C+
43 D
Agility
65 C+
53 C
TD react
67 C+
84 A
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
38%
Submission
37%
Decision
25%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

20%

R3

22%

Dist

25%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Magomedov (ground 58) into Rowston (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking differential

    -0.47 vs 1.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rowston

  • Damage ratio

    0.87 vs 1.54 landed/absorbed

    Rowston

  • Ground game (tape)

    58 vs 42

    Magomedov

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.06 vs 4.60

    Rowston

  • Takedown reaction

    75% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Rowston

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Rowston

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rowston

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Magomedov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rowston

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 59%

    Magomedov

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 49

    Rowston

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 57%

    Rowston

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Magomedov (ground 58) into Rowston (TD reaction 67).

    Magomedov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Rowston

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Magomedov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 31

    Rowston

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rowston

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Rowston

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 75% vs 80%

    Rowston

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 78.0"

    Magomedov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Magomedov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Magomedov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Magomedov

Tape

MagomedovMetricRowston
3.06SLpM4.60
3.53SApM2.99
53%Str Acc57%
62%Str Def59%
2.50TD Avg1.34
59%TD Acc44%
75%TD Def80%
0.58Sub Avg0.33
0.10KD/150.47
6'6"Reach6'6"
35Age31

Abus Magomedov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Cam Rowston

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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