OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Aaron Pico 76% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico

Arnold Allen
EnglandEngland

Arnold Allen

“Almighty”

Unranked · 21-4 · striker · Southpaw · 32 · IQ B 68

BKK Fighters · England

VS
Aaron Pico
USAUSA

Aaron Pico

Unranked · 14-5 · wrestler · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 63

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

Arnold Allen

24.2%

Aaron Pico

75.8%

Model win probability · confidence 72%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Pico 76 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Aaron Pico is the model side at 75.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Pico (ground 70) into Allen (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Pico 70 (B) vs Allen 41 (D). Pico brings 6.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Allen's 80% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Pico

    Pico 70 (B) vs Allen 41 (D). Pico brings 6.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Allen's 80% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Pico

    Pico 69 (B) vs Allen 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Pico (6.2 SLpM at 54%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Allen

    Allen 67 (C+) vs Pico 50 (D). When the shot comes, Allen stuffs it at 80% — Pico is at 59%.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Allen

    Allen 64 (C+) vs Pico 53 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Allen.

Path · Allen

Allen has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Pico

Pico has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Allen defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Allen attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Pico is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Allen is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Allen — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Pico 70 (B) vs Allen 41 (D). Pico brings 6.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Allen's 80% takedown defense. Punching agility: Pico 69 (B) vs Allen 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Pico (6.2 SLpM at 54%). Takedown reaction: Allen 67 (C+) vs Pico 50 (D). When the shot comes, Allen stuffs it at 80% — Pico is at 59%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (59%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Allen attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AllenTraitPico
68 B
IQ
63 C+
41 D
Ground
70 B
64 C+
Defense
72 B
43 D
Counter
34 D
64 C+
Reaction
53 C
46 D
Agility
69 B
67 C+
TD react
50 D
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
21%
Decision
59%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

11%

R3

13%

Dist

59%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Pico (ground 70) into Allen (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.15 vs 3.72 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pico

  • Damage ratio

    1.04 vs 2.52 landed/absorbed

    Pico

  • Ground game (tape)

    41 vs 70

    Pico

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.52 vs 6.16

    Pico

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pico

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 59% hips on the shot

    Allen

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pico

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 56%

    Allen

  • Fight IQ

    B 68 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Allen

  • Striking efficiency

    48% vs 54%

    Pico

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 34

    Allen

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Allen

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Pico

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Pico (ground 70) into Allen (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Pico

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 59%

    Allen

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Allen

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 29

    Pico

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pico

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 70.5"

    Pico

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Allen

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Allen

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Allen

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Allen

Tape

AllenMetricPico
3.52SLpM6.16
3.37SApM2.44
48%Str Acc54%
61%Str Def56%
1.24TD Avg6.54
60%TD Acc50%
80%TD Def59%
0.28Sub Avg0.00
0.22KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'11"
32Age29

Arnold Allen

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Aaron Pico

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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