OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ramazan Temirov 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov

Lone'er Kavanagh
EnglandEngland

Lone'er Kavanagh

Unranked · 10-2 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C 56

Great Britain Top Team · England

VS
Ramazan Temirov
UzbekistanUzbekistan

Ramazan Temirov

“Temurlan”

Unranked · 20-3 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 55

Muradov Legion Gym · Uzbekistan

Lone'er Kavanagh

50.0%

Ramazan Temirov

50.0%

Model win probability · confidence 42%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Temirov 50 — the tape favors pocket striker

Ramazan Temirov is the model side at 50.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Kavanagh 45 (D) vs Temirov 34 (D). Kavanagh's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Temirov's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Kavanagh

    Kavanagh 45 (D) vs Temirov 34 (D). Kavanagh's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Temirov's entries.

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Kavanagh

    Kavanagh 34 (D) vs Temirov 27 (D). Kavanagh brings 1.1 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Temirov's 82% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Temirov

    Temirov 58 (C) vs Kavanagh 54 (C). When the shot comes, Temirov stuffs it at 82% — Kavanagh is at 81%.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Kavanagh

    Kavanagh 57 (C) vs Temirov 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Kavanagh (4.1 SLpM at 53%).

Path · Kavanagh

Kavanagh wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Temirov a long look at durability.

Path · Temirov

Temirov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Kavanagh a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Temirov is built as: Pocket striker. Kavanagh is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Kavanagh — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Kavanagh 45 (D) vs Temirov 34 (D). Kavanagh's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Temirov's entries. Ground game: Kavanagh 34 (D) vs Temirov 27 (D). Kavanagh brings 1.1 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Temirov's 82% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Temirov 58 (C) vs Kavanagh 54 (C). When the shot comes, Temirov stuffs it at 82% — Kavanagh is at 81%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KavanaghTraitTemirov
56 C
IQ
55 C
34 D
Ground
27 D
66 C+
Defense
67 C+
45 D
Counter
34 D
65 C+
Reaction
66 C+
57 C
Agility
53 C
54 C
TD react
58 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
21%
Decision
49%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    0.98 vs 1.79 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Temirov

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 43%

    Kavanagh

  • Damage ratio

    1.31 vs 1.61 landed/absorbed

    Temirov

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 34

    Kavanagh

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 27

    Kavanagh

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 63.0"

    Kavanagh

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.13 vs 4.73

    Temirov

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Temirov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Kavanagh

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kavanagh

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 59%

    Kavanagh

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs C 55 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Kavanagh

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Temirov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 29

    Kavanagh

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Temirov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Temirov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Temirov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 82%

    Temirov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Kavanagh

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Kavanagh

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Kavanagh

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Kavanagh

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Kavanagh

Tape

KavanaghMetricTemirov
4.13SLpM4.73
3.15SApM2.94
53%Str Acc43%
60%Str Def59%
1.12TD Avg0.68
45%TD Acc50%
81%TD Def82%
0.22Sub Avg0.00
0.23KD/150.24
5'7"Reach5'3"
27Age29

Lone'er Kavanagh

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ramazan Temirov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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