OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Bantamweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Petr Yan 56% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

Petr Yan
RussiaRussia

Petr Yan

“No Mercy”

#2 · 20-5 · striker · Switch · 33 · IQ B 75

BK Arkhangel Mikhail · Russia

VS
Merab Dvalishvili
GeorgiaGeorgia

Merab Dvalishvili

“The Machine”

Unranked · 21-5 · wrestler · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 65

Serra-Longo Fight Team · Georgia

Petr Yan

56.5%

Merab Dvalishvili

43.5%

Model win probability · confidence 52%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Yan 56 — the tape favors pocket striker

Petr Yan is the model side at 56.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Dvalishvili (ground 69) into Yan (TD reaction 70). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Dvalishvili 69 (B) vs Yan 36 (D). Dvalishvili brings 6.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Yan's 81% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Dvalishvili

    Dvalishvili 69 (B) vs Yan 36 (D). Dvalishvili brings 6.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Yan's 81% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Yan

    Yan 70 (B) vs Dvalishvili 52 (C). When the shot comes, Yan stuffs it at 81% — Dvalishvili is at 61%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Yan

    Yan 75 (B) vs Dvalishvili 65 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yan (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Dvalishvili

    Dvalishvili 66 (C+) vs Yan 56 (C). Dvalishvili absorbs 3.05/min at 59% defense; Yan is a softer target at 3.48 SApM.

Path · Yan

Yan has to stuff the first takedown (70 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Yan defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Yan is built as: Pocket striker. Dvalishvili is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Yan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Dvalishvili 69 (B) vs Yan 36 (D). Dvalishvili brings 6.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Yan's 81% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Yan 70 (B) vs Dvalishvili 52 (C). When the shot comes, Yan stuffs it at 81% — Dvalishvili is at 61%. Fight IQ: Yan 75 (B) vs Dvalishvili 65 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yan (B vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (51%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

YanTraitDvalishvili
75 B
IQ
65 C+
36 D
Ground
69 B
56 C
Defense
66 C+
48 D
Counter
48 D
54 C
Reaction
52 C
61 C+
Agility
56 C
70 B
TD react
52 C
89 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Decision
51%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

13%

R3

10%

R4

2%

R5

2%

Dist

51%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 16.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Dvalishvili (ground 69) into Yan (TD reaction 70). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    36 vs 69

    Dvalishvili

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 2/0 UFC rows

    Yan

  • Striking differential

    2.18 vs 1.37 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Yan

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 61% hips on the shot

    Yan

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Dvalishvili

  • Fight IQ

    B 75 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Yan

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 82 vs 50

    Yan

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.41 vs 4.42

    Yan

  • Damage ratio

    1.68 vs 1.45 landed/absorbed

    Yan

  • Striking defense

    54% vs 59%

    Dvalishvili

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Dvalishvili

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 61%

    Yan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Yan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Yan

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Dvalishvili (ground 69) into Yan (TD reaction 70). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Dvalishvili

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 58%

    Yan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Yan

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 68.0"

    Dvalishvili

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Dvalishvili

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Yan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 35

    Yan

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 48

    Dvalishvili

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Yan

Tape

YanMetricDvalishvili
5.16SLpM4.42
3.48SApM3.05
61%Str Acc58%
52%Str Def59%
1.70TD Avg5.97
49%TD Acc35%
81%TD Def61%
0.11Sub Avg0.35
0.00KD/150.11
5'7"Reach5'8"
33Age35

Petr Yan

W

Deiveson Figueiredo

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Nov 23, 2024
W

Song Yadong

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 10, 2024

Merab Dvalishvili

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.