OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

TBA vs Opponent TBA

T

TBA

Unranked · 0-0 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ D 43

VS
OT

Opponent TBA

Unranked · 0-0 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ D 43

TBA

50.0%

Opponent TBA

50.0%

Model win probability · confidence 42%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

TBA 50 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

TBA is the model side at 50.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: TBA 43 (D) vs TBA 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with TBA (D vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    TBA

    TBA 43 (D) vs TBA 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with TBA (D vs D).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    TBA

    TBA 12 (D) vs TBA 12 (D). TBA brings 0.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into TBA's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    TBA

    TBA 69 (B) vs TBA 69 (B). When the shot comes, TBA stuffs it at 85% — TBA is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    TBA

    TBA 57 (C) vs TBA 57 (C). TBA absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; TBA is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · TBA

TBA wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying TBA a long look at their first weapon.

Path · TBA

TBA wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying TBA a long look at their first weapon.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. TBA is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. TBA is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward TBA — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: TBA 43 (D) vs TBA 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with TBA (D vs D). Ground game: TBA 12 (D) vs TBA 12 (D). TBA brings 0.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into TBA's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: TBA 69 (B) vs TBA 69 (B). When the shot comes, TBA stuffs it at 85% — TBA is at 85%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (71%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TBATraitTBA
43 D
IQ
43 D
12 D
Ground
12 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
58 C
38 D
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
65 C+
Chin
65 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
9%
Decision
71%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

8%

R3

10%

Dist

71%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.7 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    TBA

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    TBA

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    TBA

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    TBA

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    TBA

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    TBA

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    TBA

  • Reach / length

    1.0" vs 1.0"

    TBA

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 0

    TBA

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    TBA

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    TBA

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    TBA

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    TBA

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    TBA

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    TBA

  • Fight IQ

    D 43 vs D 43 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    TBA

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    TBA

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    TBA

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    TBA

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    TBA

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    TBA

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    TBA

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    TBA

Tape

TBAMetricTBA
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
0Age0

TBA

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Opponent TBA

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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