OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Bantamweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Raoni Barcelos 64% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos

Raul Rosas Jr.
MexicoMexico

Raul Rosas Jr.

“El Niño Problema”

Unranked · 12-1 · wrestler · Switch · 21 · IQ B 74

10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu · Mexico

VS
Raoni Barcelos
BrazilBrazil

Raoni Barcelos

Unranked · 22-5 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C+ 64

Top Brother MMA · Brazil

Raul Rosas Jr.

36.0%

Raoni Barcelos

64.0%

Model win probability · confidence 58%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Barcelos 64 — the tape favors pocket striker

Raoni Barcelos is the model side at 64.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Jr. (ground 87) into Barcelos (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Rosas Jr. 87 (A) vs Barcelos 50 (D). Rosas Jr. brings 6.1 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Barcelos's 75% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Jr.

    Rosas Jr. 87 (A) vs Barcelos 50 (D). Rosas Jr. brings 6.1 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Barcelos's 75% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Barcelos

    Barcelos 55 (C) vs Rosas Jr. 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Barcelos (4.7 SLpM at 56%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Jr.

    Rosas Jr. 74 (B) vs Barcelos 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rosas Jr. (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Barcelos

    Barcelos 85 (A) vs Rosas Jr. 78 (B+). Barcelos has been finished by strikes 0 times; Rosas Jr. 0.

Path · Jr.

Rosas Jr. has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Barcelos defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Barcelos

Barcelos has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Barcelos is built as: Pocket striker. Rosas Jr. is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Rosas Jr. — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Rosas Jr. 87 (A) vs Barcelos 50 (D). Rosas Jr. brings 6.1 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Barcelos's 75% takedown defense. Punching agility: Barcelos 55 (C) vs Rosas Jr. 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Barcelos (4.7 SLpM at 56%). Fight IQ: Rosas Jr. 74 (B) vs Barcelos 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rosas Jr. (B vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

Jr.TraitBarcelos
74 B
IQ
64 C+
87 A
Ground
50 D
61 C+
Defense
67 C+
47 D
Counter
44 D
54 C
Reaction
56 C
43 D
Agility
55 C
57 C
TD react
59 C
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
24%
Submission
26%
Decision
50%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

10%

R4

2%

R5

3%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 16.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Jr. (ground 87) into Barcelos (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -2.79 vs 1.68 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Barcelos

  • Damage ratio

    0.32 vs 1.57 landed/absorbed

    Barcelos

  • Ground game (tape)

    87 vs 50

    Jr.

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.34 vs 4.65

    Barcelos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jr.

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jr.

  • Striking defense

    65% vs 59%

    Jr.

  • Age-adjusted curve

    21 vs 39

    Jr.

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Barcelos

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 56%

    Jr.

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Jr. (ground 87) into Barcelos (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Jr.

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Barcelos

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Barcelos

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Jr.

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Barcelos

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 44

    Jr.

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 61% vs 75%

    Barcelos

  • Takedown reaction

    61% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Barcelos

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Barcelos

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 67.0"

    Jr.

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jr.

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jr.

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Jr.

Tape

Jr.MetricBarcelos
1.34SLpM4.65
4.13SApM2.97
61%Str Acc56%
65%Str Def59%
6.10TD Avg2.51
55%TD Acc32%
61%TD Def75%
0.87Sub Avg0.68
0.22KD/150.21
5'7"Reach5'7"
21Age39

Raul Rosas Jr.

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Raoni Barcelos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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